Safehold (SAFE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAFE - Safehold Inc.
$11.33
0.67 (6.29%)
▲
5d:
-1.9%
30d:
-12.24%
90d:
-31.58%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SAFE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SAFE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.90
Based on 3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAFE is currently trading at $11.33, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.39 to $13.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.8) compared to its historical average (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAFE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.61, while resistance sits at $12.23. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.44 (+45.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAFE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.61, while resistance sits at $12.23. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.44 (+45.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.39 -
$13.11
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 45.1% below Wall St target ($16.44)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.39 -
$13.11
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.61
Resistance Level
$12.23
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.78
Wall Street Target
$16.44
(+45.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Profit Margin
26.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 8.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.50
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$9.74
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$9.03
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$11.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 3.1%)
$36.33
(+221%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 3.1%)
$12.41
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 3.1%)
$10.55
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.61
Bull Case
$12.16
(+7%)
Analyst growth 3.7%, PE expands to 7.3
Base Case
$11.06
(-2%)
Market implied 3.7%, PE stable at 6.6
Bear Case
$7.25
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$14.20
(+25.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAFE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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