Safehold (SAFE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAFE - Safehold Inc.
$14.03
-0.33 (-2.30%)
▼
5d:
-6.84%
30d:
-8.54%
90d:
-12.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SAFE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SAFE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.11
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAFE is currently trading at $14.03, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.77 to $15.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAFE is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $13.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SAFE scores 16/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.70 (+33.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAFE is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $13.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SAFE scores 16/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.70 (+33.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.77 -
$15.80
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (16/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.3% below Wall St target ($18.70)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.77 -
$15.80
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.99
Resistance Level
$15.58
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.26
Wall Street Target
$18.70
(+33.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Profit Margin
26.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.79
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$13.56
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$13.33
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$14.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 4.3%)
$38.87
(+177%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 4.3%)
$15.92
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 4.3%)
$13.53
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.61
Bull Case
$16.67
(+19%)
Analyst growth 5.5%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$15.15
(+8%)
Market implied 5.5%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$9.76
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 8.7
Stabilization Target:
$14.78
(+5.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAFE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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