SAFE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAFE - Safehold Inc.
$15.37
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
+0.79%
30d:
-4.3%
90d:
+6.29%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SAFE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SAFE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.03
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAFE is currently trading at $15.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.38 to $16.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAFE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.79, while resistance sits at $16.23.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.70 (+23.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAFE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.79, while resistance sits at $16.23.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.70 (+23.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$15.38 -
$16.68
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.0% below Wall St target ($18.70)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.38 -
$16.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.79
Resistance Level
$16.23
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.97
Wall Street Target
$18.70
(+23.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Profit Margin
26.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.37
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$15.54
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$15.71
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.24
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 4.2%)
$38.49
(+153%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 4.2%)
$17.20
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 4.2%)
$14.62
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.61
Bull Case
$17.14
(+12%)
Analyst growth 5.3%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$15.58
(+1%)
Market implied 5.3%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$10.06
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAFE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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