Sonic Automotive (SAH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$61.82
-0.41 (-0.65%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.49%
30d:
+1.24%
90d:
-21.99%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (72%)
Quality Score
47/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$60.97 â $63.46
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.8x
FAIR
vs 9.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$81.36
+30.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$58.81 / $66.24
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SAH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$102.71
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.77
3.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAH is currently trading at $61.81, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.97 to $63.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $58.81, while resistance sits at $66.24.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.36 (+30.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $58.81, while resistance sits at $66.24.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.36 (+30.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$60.97 -
$63.46
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$60.97 -
$63.46
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$58.81
Resistance Level
$66.24
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.8% below Wall St target ($81.36)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.82
Wall Street Target
$81.36
(+30.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.8%
Profit Margin
1.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.35
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$58.54
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$56.79
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â10)
$62.48
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.0%)
$202.07
(+225%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 13.0%)
$89.71
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 13.0%)
$76.25
(+23%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.38
Bull Case
$76.84
(+24%)
Analyst growth 10.6%, PE expands to 10.9
Base Case
$69.85
(+12%)
Market implied 10.6%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$42.94
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$68.45
(+10.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.0%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SAH)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Carvana (CVNA) is down 20% YTD despite being the second-largest used car retailer in the US. The latest article discusses Carvana's operational and financial improvements, expansion opportunities, and strong financial performance.
Key Retail Themes:
Carvana's expansion opportunities in the highly fragmented used car market
Improving financial performance with record Adjusted EBITDA in the last reported quarter
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 2:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL
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