SBH
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.
RETAIL-RETAIL STORES, NEC
Sally Beauty (SBH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$19.22
-1.32 (-6.43%)
▼
5d:
-0.1%
30d:
+20.88%
90d:
+16.2%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (13%)
Quality Score
40/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$16.16 – $18.66
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.6x
STRETCHED
vs 6.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$17.00
-11.6% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$17.67 / $21.06
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SBH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.32
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SBH is currently trading at $19.22, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.16 to $18.66. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.6) compared to its historical average (6.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.67, while resistance sits at $21.06. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: SBH scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $17.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.67, while resistance sits at $21.06. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: SBH scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $17.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.16 -
$18.66
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
13.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$16.16 -
$18.66
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$17.67
Resistance Level
$21.06
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.4%)
- BEARISH: Trading 11.6% above Wall St target ($17.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 8.1% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.60
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(-11.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.0%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.1% premium
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 6.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.78
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$22.46
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$24.28
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$19.19
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.0%)
$55.93
(+191%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 8.0%)
$24.23
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 8.0%)
$19.15
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.92
Bull Case
$26.29
(+37%)
Analyst growth 16.4%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$23.90
(+24%)
Market implied 16.4%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$13.97
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SBH)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Apr 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish trader on StockTwits expresses confidence in $SBH staying above 12.5 after earnings, with significant investments in June and December call options.
Key Retail Themes:
Bullish sentiment towards $SBH
Earnings expectations
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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