SBH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SBH - Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.
$14.70
-0.59 (-3.86%)
▼
5d:
+3.81%
30d:
+12.39%
90d:
+6.75%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SBH is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SBH is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.80
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SBH is currently trading at $14.70, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.97 to $14.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (6.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: SBH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.40 (+11.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: SBH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.40 (+11.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.97 -
$14.55
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($16.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.97 -
$14.55
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.75
Resistance Level
$13.44
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.56
Wall Street Target
$16.40
(+11.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.2%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 6.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.73
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$14.76
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$14.79
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.65
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.7%)
$62.73
(+327%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 8.7%)
$18.90
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 8.7%)
$16.06
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.88
Bull Case
$19.27
(+31%)
Analyst growth 19.1%, PE expands to 8.6
Base Case
$17.51
(+19%)
Market implied 19.1%, PE stable at 7.8
Bear Case
$10.00
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 7:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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