SBH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SBH - Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.
$16.13
1.16 (7.75%)
▲
5d:
+7.53%
30d:
+14.07%
90d:
+14.97%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SBH is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SBH is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.80
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SBH is currently trading at $16.13, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.25 to $15.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.2) compared to its historical average (6.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.24, while resistance sits at $17.20. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: SBH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.24, while resistance sits at $17.20. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: SBH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.25 -
$15.23
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.9% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.25 -
$15.23
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.25
Resistance Level
$17.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.20
Wall Street Target
$16.40
(+1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.2%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 6.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.66
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$17.21
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$17.78
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.05
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 8.7%)
$59.70
(+270%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: 8.7%)
$20.74
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 8.7%)
$17.63
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.81
Bull Case
$20.38
(+26%)
Analyst growth 23.8%, PE expands to 9.1
Base Case
$18.53
(+15%)
Market implied 23.8%, PE stable at 8.3
Bear Case
$10.18
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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