Sally Beauty (SBH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SBH - Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.
$15.96
0.16 (1.01%)
▲
5d:
-3.1%
30d:
-3.68%
90d:
+17.7%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SBH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SBH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.96
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SBH is currently trading at $15.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.12 to $16.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.1) is in line with its historical norms (6.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SBH scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SBH scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.12 -
$16.69
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.12 -
$16.69
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.63
Resistance Level
$16.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.12
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.0%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.34
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$16.74
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$17.14
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.87
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.4%)
$57.58
(+261%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 8.4%)
$20.34
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 8.4%)
$17.29
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.92
Bull Case
$20.28
(+27%)
Analyst growth 16.7%, PE expands to 9.1
Base Case
$18.43
(+16%)
Market implied 16.7%, PE stable at 8.2
Bear Case
$10.74
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 12:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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