Sally Beauty (SBH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SBH - Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.
$17.62
1.02 (6.14%)
▲
5d:
+2.92%
30d:
+5.19%
90d:
+20.36%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SBH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SBH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.13
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SBH is currently trading at $17.62, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.88 to $16.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.9) compared to its historical average (6.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: SBH scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: SBH scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$15.88 -
$16.90
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.4% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.88 -
$16.90
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.59
Resistance Level
$17.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.88
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(-3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.0%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.4% premium
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 6.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.57
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$19.57
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$20.63
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.54
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.2%)
$56.30
(+220%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 8.2%)
$22.34
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 8.2%)
$18.99
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.87
Bull Case
$21.83
(+24%)
Analyst growth 19.6%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$19.85
(+13%)
Market implied 19.6%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$11.29
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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