SBH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SBH - Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.
$16.57
0.34 (2.09%)
▲
5d:
+0.91%
30d:
+14.35%
90d:
+32.56%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SBH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SBH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.96
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SBH is currently trading at $16.57, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.80 to $16.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (6.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.05, while resistance sits at $17.29.
Market Sentiment: SBH scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.05, while resistance sits at $17.29.
Market Sentiment: SBH scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.80 -
$16.45
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.80 -
$16.45
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.05
Resistance Level
$17.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.40
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+2.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.0%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.0% premium
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.23
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$17.92
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$18.64
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.63
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.4%)
$57.30
(+246%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 8.4%)
$21.12
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 8.4%)
$17.95
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.86
Bull Case
$21.50
(+30%)
Analyst growth 20.4%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$19.55
(+18%)
Market implied 20.4%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$11.04
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 10:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:29 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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