Sally Beauty (SBH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SBH - Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.
$16.24
0.17 (1.06%)
â˛
5d:
-5.47%
30d:
-0.55%
90d:
+14.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SBH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SBH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.26
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SBH is currently trading at $16.24, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.97 to $16.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (6.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.67, while resistance sits at $17.27.
Market Sentiment: SBH scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.67, while resistance sits at $17.27.
Market Sentiment: SBH scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$15.97 -
$16.76
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.97 -
$16.76
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.67
Resistance Level
$17.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.25
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+4.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.0%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 6.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.69
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$17.16
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$17.64
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7â7)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.30
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 8.4%)
$58.24
(+259%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: 8.4%)
$20.70
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 8.4%)
$17.59
(+8%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.88
Bull Case
$21.06
(+30%)
Analyst growth 19.1%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$19.15
(+18%)
Market implied 19.1%, PE stable at 8.6
Bear Case
$10.93
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 3:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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