Stifel Financial (SF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SF - Stifel Financial Corp.
$70.28
-0.06 (-0.09%)
▼
5d:
-0.1%
30d:
-12.16%
90d:
-6.41%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$120.14
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.60
5.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SF is currently trading at $70.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.86 to $81.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.6) compared to its historical average (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 50.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SF scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.00 (+26.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SF scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.00 (+26.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$72.86 -
$81.24
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.5% below Wall St target ($89.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 28% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$72.86 -
$81.24
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.82
Resistance Level
$77.03
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.60
Wall Street Target
$89.00
(+26.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.6%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 11.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.03
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$63.88
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$60.88
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$70.41
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 12.3%)
$211.98
(+201%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 12.3%)
$99.73
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 12.3%)
$84.77
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.59
Bull Case
$101.01
(+44%)
Analyst growth 31.1%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$91.82
(+31%)
Market implied 31.1%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$47.63
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$81.35
(+15.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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