SF
Stifel Financial Corp.
SECURITY BROKERS, DEALERS & FLOTATION COMPANIES
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Stifel Financial (SF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$73.02
-0.10 (-0.14%)
▼
5d:
+0.11%
30d:
+4.76%
90d:
-14.78%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (26%)
Quality Score
36/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$67.00 – $70.96
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.4x
FAIR
vs 10.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$80.88
+10.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$66.03 / $74.84
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$118.60
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.64
0.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SF is currently trading at $73.02, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.00 to $70.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SF scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.88 (+10.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SF scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.88 (+10.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$67.00 -
$70.96
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$67.00 -
$70.96
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$66.03
Resistance Level
$74.84
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($80.88)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.37
Wall Street Target
$80.88
(+10.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.8%
Profit Margin
16.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 10.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.78
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$70.56
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$69.36
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$72.92
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.3%)
$208.92
(+186%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 14.3%)
$109.06
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 14.3%)
$92.70
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.77
Bull Case
$98.18
(+35%)
Analyst growth 22.1%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$89.25
(+22%)
Market implied 22.1%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$49.72
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$76.77
(+5.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.1%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SF)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
2
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Stifel lowered its price target for Microsoft, expressing concerns over estimated gross margin compression due to Azure's rapid growth and increased capital expenditures.
Key Retail Themes:
Microsoft's gross margin concerns
Stifel's price target reduction
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 7:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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