Stifel Financial (SF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SF - Stifel Financial Corp.
$79.76
0.07 (0.09%)
▲
5d:
-3.06%
30d:
-6.1%
90d:
+11.71%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$121.22
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SF is currently trading at $79.76, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.49 to $84.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 50.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $78.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.00 (+11.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $78.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.00 (+11.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$80.49 -
$84.28
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($89.00)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.49 -
$84.28
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.69
Resistance Level
$82.31
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.88
Wall Street Target
$89.00
(+11.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.6%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.04
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$78.33
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$77.63
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$79.88
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.3%)
$209.59
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 12.3%)
$113.09
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 12.3%)
$96.13
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.53
Bull Case
$116.17
(+46%)
Analyst growth 32.5%, PE expands to 15.9
Base Case
$105.61
(+32%)
Market implied 32.5%, PE stable at 14.4
Bear Case
$54.19
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 11.2
Stabilization Target:
$82.08
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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