SF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SF - Stifel Financial Corp.
$80.96
1.08 (1.35%)
â˛
5d:
-5.44%
30d:
+1.76%
90d:
+11.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SF is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SF is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$121.22
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SF is currently trading at $80.96, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.53 to $84.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $79.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SF scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $79.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SF scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$79.53 -
$84.60
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($89.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.53 -
$84.60
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.83
Resistance Level
$86.19
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.29
Wall Street Target
$89.00
(+7.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.6%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.97
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$83.22
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$83.47
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â11)
PE COMPRESSION
$82.82
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 12.3%)
$208.55
(+152%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 12.3%)
$117.29
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 12.3%)
$99.69
(+21%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.59
Bull Case
$120.75
(+49%)
Analyst growth 31.1%, PE expands to 16.5
Base Case
$109.77
(+36%)
Market implied 31.1%, PE stable at 15.0
Bear Case
$56.94
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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