Stifel Financial (SF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SF - Stifel Financial Corp.
$67.85
1.44 (2.17%)
▲
5d:
-1.22%
30d:
-5.67%
90d:
-16.05%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$136.86
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$84.98
20.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SF is currently trading at $67.85, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.73 to $74.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.5) compared to its historical average (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 50.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $65.40, while resistance sits at $70.72.
Market Sentiment: SF scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.62 (+23.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $65.40, while resistance sits at $70.72.
Market Sentiment: SF scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.62 (+23.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$67.73 -
$74.02
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.2% below Wall St target ($83.62)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 63/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$67.73 -
$74.02
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.40
Resistance Level
$70.72
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.47
Wall Street Target
$83.63
(+23.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.6%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 11.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.59
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$61.49
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$58.54
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$68.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.6%)
$243.81
(+259%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 19.6%)
$116.22
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 19.6%)
$98.79
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.77
Bull Case
$90.74
(+34%)
Analyst growth 24.2%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$82.49
(+22%)
Market implied 24.2%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$45.16
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$78.84
(+16.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 8:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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