Steven Madden (SHOO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOO - Steven Madden Ltd
$42.93
1.37 (3.30%)
▲
5d:
+1.49%
30d:
-10.0%
90d:
-6.45%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SHOO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SHOO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.55
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.74
20.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOO is currently trading at $42.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.26 to $48.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.5) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 75.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $41.40, while resistance sits at $45.22. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.40 (+22.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $41.40, while resistance sits at $45.22. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.40 (+22.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$43.26 -
$48.01
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 22.1% below Wall St target ($52.40)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.26 -
$48.01
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.40
Resistance Level
$45.22
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.46
Wall Street Target
$52.40
(+22.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.4%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.46
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$41.99
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$41.53
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$42.99
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 26.0%)
$112.14
(+161%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 26.0%)
$85.93
(+100%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 26.0%)
$73.04
(+70%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.91
Bull Case
$66.48
(+55%)
Analyst growth 45.4%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$60.44
(+41%)
Market implied 45.4%, PE stable at 21.8
Bear Case
$28.26
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.5 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$44.44
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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