SHOO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOO - Steven Madden Ltd
$42.30
-0.43 (-1.01%)
▼
5d:
-6.87%
30d:
+2.3%
90d:
+25.74%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SHOO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SHOO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.93
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.11
18.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOO is currently trading at $42.30, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.34 to $45.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.7) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 75.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.78 (+10.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.78 (+10.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$41.34 -
$45.23
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.78)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.9% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.34 -
$45.23
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.13
Resistance Level
$46.65
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.70
Wall Street Target
$46.78
(+10.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.4%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.09
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$41.88
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$41.67
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
$42.46
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 27.0%)
$120.08
(+184%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 27.0%)
$86.58
(+105%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 27.0%)
$73.59
(+74%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.06
Bull Case
$94.01
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.3
Base Case
$85.46
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.3
Bear Case
$29.06
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.7 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$43.10
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 4:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:02 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Arian Simone Reed
SELL
3600 shares
2026-03-12
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