SHOO
Steven Madden Ltd
FOOTWEAR, (NO RUBBER)
Steven Madden (SHOO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$41.18
-1.52 (-3.56%)
▼
5d:
+5.6%
30d:
-7.96%
90d:
-12.64%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (72%)
Quality Score
55/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$42.31 – $45.79
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
15.3x
FAIR
vs 16.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$48.89
+18.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$38.14 / $47.01
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: SHOO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.73
Based on 13.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$50.13
17.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOO is currently trading at $41.18, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.31 to $45.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 148.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.14, while resistance sits at $47.01. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.89 (+18.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.14, while resistance sits at $47.01. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.89 (+18.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$42.31 -
$45.79
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$42.31 -
$45.79
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$38.14
Resistance Level
$47.01
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($48.89)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.27
Wall Street Target
$48.89
(+18.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
148.7%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.56
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$39.95
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$39.35
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$41.23
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 23.1%)
$99.91
(+143%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 23.1%)
$76.82
(+87%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 23.1%)
$65.30
(+59%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.43
Bull Case
$52.04
(+22%)
Analyst growth 11.2%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$47.31
(+11%)
Market implied 11.2%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$28.92
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.3 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$43.15
(+4.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SHOO)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 24, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A single bullish message on StockTwits mentions buying $SHOO at a price of 43.74, with no accompanying news articles.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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