SHOO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOO - Steven Madden Ltd
$46.08
0.37 (0.81%)
â˛
5d:
-2.25%
30d:
+9.48%
90d:
+11.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SHOO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SHOO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.67
14.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOO is currently trading at $46.08, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.61 to $48.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.6) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SHOO scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.56 (+11.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SHOO scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.56 (+11.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$43.61 -
$48.12
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($51.56)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.61 -
$48.12
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.16
Resistance Level
$49.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.61
Wall Street Target
$51.56
(+11.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.4%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.68
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$47.29
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$47.90
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17â16)
PE COMPRESSION
$46.14
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 26.6%)
$112.98
(+145%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 26.6%)
$93.50
(+103%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 26.6%)
$79.48
(+73%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.93
Bull Case
$72.27
(+57%)
Analyst growth 43.7%, PE expands to 26.1
Base Case
$65.70
(+43%)
Market implied 43.7%, PE stable at 23.7
Bear Case
$31.08
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Arian Simone Reed
SELL
3600 shares
2026-03-12
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