SHOO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOO - Steven Madden Ltd
$47.98
1.90 (4.12%)
▲
5d:
+10.24%
30d:
+20.19%
90d:
+27.95%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: SHOO is 8.3% above its trading range ($44.32). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: SHOO is 8.3% above its trading range ($44.32). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.67
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.95
7.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOO is currently trading at $47.98, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.77 to $44.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.1) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $48.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: SHOO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $48.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: SHOO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$40.77 -
$44.32
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.3% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.77 -
$44.32
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.54
Resistance Level
$48.76
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.05
Wall Street Target
$45.68
(-0.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.4%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
17.1 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.14
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$48.22
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$49.33
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$46.00
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 26.8%)
$114.13
(+148%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.1, Growth: 26.8%)
$93.89
(+104%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 26.8%)
$79.80
(+73%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.17
Bull Case
$105.23
(+128%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.0
Base Case
$95.66
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.9
Bear Case
$32.52
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:31 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Arian Simone Reed
SELL
3600 shares
2026-03-12
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