Steven Madden (SHOO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOO - Steven Madden Ltd
$45.97
0.28 (0.61%)
â˛
5d:
+2.02%
30d:
+9.48%
90d:
+15.76%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SHOO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SHOO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.01
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.40
13.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOO is currently trading at $45.97, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.97 to $44.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.6) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $46.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SHOO scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.40 (+14.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $46.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SHOO scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.40 (+14.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$41.97 -
$44.86
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($52.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.97 -
$44.86
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.84
Resistance Level
$46.67
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.55
Wall Street Target
$52.40
(+14.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.4%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.52
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$47.08
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$47.64
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17â16)
PE COMPRESSION
$45.77
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 26.0%)
$113.42
(+147%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: 26.0%)
$92.01
(+100%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 26.0%)
$78.21
(+70%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.04
Bull Case
$68.43
(+49%)
Analyst growth 36.2%, PE expands to 24.6
Base Case
$62.21
(+35%)
Market implied 36.2%, PE stable at 22.4
Bear Case
$31.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 2:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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