Steven Madden (SHOO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOO - Steven Madden Ltd
$43.21
-1.21 (-2.72%)
▼
5d:
-4.55%
30d:
-2.31%
90d:
-0.72%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SHOO is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SHOO is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.52
Based on 14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.86
16.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOO is currently trading at $43.21, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.84 to $45.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.3) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.11 (+17.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.11 (+17.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$42.84 -
$45.63
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($52.11)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (49/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.84 -
$45.63
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.53
Resistance Level
$47.29
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.30
Wall Street Target
$52.11
(+17.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.4%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.73
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$45.04
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$45.36
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.54
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 24.2%)
$103.81
(+134%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 24.2%)
$85.18
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 24.2%)
$72.40
(+63%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.00
Bull Case
$66.99
(+51%)
Analyst growth 36.3%, PE expands to 24.6
Base Case
$60.90
(+37%)
Market implied 36.3%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$30.39
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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