SHOO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOO - Steven Madden Ltd
$43.80
-0.47 (-1.06%)
▼
5d:
+0.74%
30d:
+20.26%
90d:
+21.26%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SHOO is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SHOO is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.96
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.51
15.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOO is currently trading at $43.80, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.64 to $42.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SHOO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SHOO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$37.64 -
$42.43
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.78)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.64 -
$42.43
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.75
Resistance Level
$44.67
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.35
Wall Street Target
$45.78
(+4.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.4%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.24
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$44.68
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$45.13
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.89
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 26.6%)
$119.16
(+172%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 26.6%)
$88.91
(+103%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 26.6%)
$75.57
(+73%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.06
Bull Case
$94.05
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.4
Base Case
$85.50
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.3
Bear Case
$29.07
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 6:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Arian Simone Reed
SELL
3600 shares
2026-03-12
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