SMBC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMBC - Southern Missouri Bancorp
$75.18
0.76 (1.02%)
▲
5d:
-1.8%
30d:
+5.95%
90d:
+12.54%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMBC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMBC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$85.35
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMBC is currently trading at $75.18, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.94 to $75.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $71.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $71.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$70.94 -
$75.94
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($76.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.94 -
$75.94
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.40
Resistance Level
$71.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.32
Wall Street Target
$76.67
(+3.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Profit Margin
36.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.25
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$80.18
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$83.23
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$74.27
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.3%)
$172.04
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 6.3%)
$89.40
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 6.3%)
$75.99
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.98
Bull Case
$90.41
(+22%)
Analyst growth 9.9%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$82.19
(+10%)
Market implied 9.9%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$50.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 4:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMBC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles R Love
SELL
580 shares
2026-03-04
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