Southern Missouri Bancorp (SMBC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMBC - Southern Missouri Bancorp
$71.36
0.46 (0.65%)
▲
5d:
-1.18%
30d:
-1.75%
90d:
-6.15%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMBC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMBC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$87.88
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMBC is currently trading at $71.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.77 to $73.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $69.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SMBC scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.25 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $69.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SMBC scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.25 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$71.77 -
$73.86
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($81.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.77 -
$73.86
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.90
Resistance Level
$73.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.85
Wall Street Target
$81.25
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.5%
Profit Margin
38.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.29
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$73.23
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$74.18
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$71.08
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 6.3%)
$161.14
(+126%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 6.3%)
$85.73
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 6.3%)
$72.87
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.43
Bull Case
$79.75
(+12%)
Analyst growth 2.3%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$72.50
(+2%)
Market implied 2.3%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$48.21
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMBC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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