SMBC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMBC - Southern Missouri Bancorp
$77.41
0.05 (0.06%)
▲
5d:
-0.28%
30d:
-0.48%
90d:
+13.44%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMBC trades at premium valuation expecting 4.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: SMBC trades at premium valuation expecting 4.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.19
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.52
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMBC is currently trading at $77.41, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.27 to $77.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $79.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $79.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$75.27 -
$77.73
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($83.67)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 4.8% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.27 -
$77.73
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.92
Resistance Level
$79.39
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.77
Wall Street Target
$83.67
(+8.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.7%
Profit Margin
36.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 10.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.13
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$85.02
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$89.10
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$77.19
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 6.3%)
$163.74
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 6.3%)
$93.00
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 6.3%)
$79.05
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.34
Bull Case
$88.25
(+14%)
Analyst growth 3.7%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$80.23
(+4%)
Market implied 3.7%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$52.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMBC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles R Love
SELL
580 shares
2026-03-04
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