Southern Missouri Bancorp (SMBC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMBC - Southern Missouri Bancorp
$73.26
0.03 (0.04%)
▲
5d:
-0.2%
30d:
-5.39%
90d:
+2.63%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMBC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMBC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$87.88
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMBC is currently trading at $73.26, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.21 to $77.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $72.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SMBC scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.67 (+14.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $72.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SMBC scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.67 (+14.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$73.21 -
$77.04
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($83.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 64/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$73.21 -
$77.04
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.12
Resistance Level
$75.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.14
Wall Street Target
$83.67
(+14.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.7%
Profit Margin
36.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.94
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$76.67
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$78.43
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$73.21
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.3%)
$159.32
(+118%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: 6.3%)
$88.01
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 6.3%)
$74.81
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.45
Bull Case
$82.11
(+12%)
Analyst growth 1.9%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$74.65
(+2%)
Market implied 1.9%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$49.80
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMBC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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