Southern Missouri Bancorp (SMBC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMBC - Southern Missouri Bancorp
$70.46
-0.69 (-0.97%)
▼
5d:
+2.31%
30d:
-1.39%
90d:
-9.34%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMBC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMBC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$88.73
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$55.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMBC is currently trading at $70.46, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.18 to $72.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $71.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMBC scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.20 (+13.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $71.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMBC scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.20 (+13.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$70.18 -
$72.45
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($80.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 75/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.18 -
$72.45
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.30
Resistance Level
$71.78
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.72
Wall Street Target
$80.20
(+13.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.5%
Profit Margin
38.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.02
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$71.59
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$72.16
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$70.71
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.3%)
$156.87
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 6.3%)
$84.65
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 6.3%)
$71.95
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.56
Bull Case
$78.44
(+11%)
Analyst growth 0.2%, PE expands to 11.9
Base Case
$71.31
(+1%)
Market implied 0.2%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$48.38
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMBC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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