SmartFinancial (SMBK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$48.00
-0.10 (-0.21%)
▼
5d:
-3.09%
30d:
-4.42%
90d:
-8.69%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (89%)
Quality Score
61/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$48.43 – $50.36
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.6x
FAIR
vs 10.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$52.38
+9.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
28th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$47.41 / $50.89
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
🚀 STRONG BUY: SMBK shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 28th percentile) and market pricing in only 2.0% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.76
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMBK is currently trading at $48.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.43 to $50.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBK is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $47.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SMBK scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (28th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBK is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $47.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SMBK scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (28th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$48.43 -
$50.36
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
28th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$48.43 -
$50.36
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.88
(6.0%)
Support Level
$47.41
Resistance Level
$50.89
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 28th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (76/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($52.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 76/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.57
Wall Street Target
$52.38
(+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.8%
Profit Margin
29.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 10.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.96
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$49.94
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$50.94
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$47.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.9%)
$106.48
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 8.9%)
$62.04
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 8.9%)
$52.73
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.67
Bull Case
$59.81
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.0%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$54.37
(+13%)
Market implied 13.0%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$32.71
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SMBK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMBK price and gamma walls.
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