SMFG
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc American Depositary Shares (each representing 3/5th of a share of common stock)
Commercial Banks, NEC
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SMFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$24.37
-0.38 (-1.54%)
▼
5d:
+3.79%
30d:
-1.54%
90d:
-7.41%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (75%)
Quality Score
65/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$23.91 – $25.12
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
13.9x
FAIR
vs 13.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$15.76
-35.4% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$22.71 / $25.08
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMFG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.54
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.55
0.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMFG is currently trading at $24.37, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.91 to $25.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.9) is in line with its historical norms (13.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMFG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMFG scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $15.76. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMFG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMFG scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $15.76. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$23.91 -
$25.12
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$23.91 -
$25.12
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$22.71
Resistance Level
$25.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 35.4% above Wall St target ($15.76)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 74/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.92
Wall Street Target
$15.76
(-35.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.0%
Profit Margin
27.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 13.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.61
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$24.86
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$25.11
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.35
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 17.9%)
$56.95
(+134%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: 17.9%)
$39.91
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 17.9%)
$33.93
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.73
Bull Case
$27.55
(+13%)
Analyst growth 1.2%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$25.05
(+3%)
Market implied 1.2%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$16.83
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SMFG)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Sep 19, 2024
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on SMFG are bearish (sentiment score +0.00) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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