The Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMG - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
$59.15
3.22 (5.76%)
▲
5d:
+9.03%
30d:
+11.96%
90d:
-14.66%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.40
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMG is currently trading at $59.15, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.41 to $54.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.6) is in line with its historical norms (13.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $59.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMG scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $72.83 (+23.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $59.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMG scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $72.83 (+23.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$49.41 -
$54.89
Company Quality Score
28/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.8% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.1% below Wall St target ($72.83)
- WARNING: Composite score 28/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.41 -
$54.89
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.95
Resistance Level
$59.27
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.61
Wall Street Target
$72.83
(+23.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.5%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 13.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.56
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$57.97
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$57.39
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$59.19
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.3%)
$112.00
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 6.3%)
$71.09
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 6.3%)
$60.42
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.80
Bull Case
$103.10
(+74%)
Analyst growth 67.6%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$93.73
(+59%)
Market implied 67.6%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$38.03
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 13.0
Stabilization Target:
$61.00
(+3.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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