SMG
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS
The Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$65.04
-0.09 (-0.14%)
▼
5d:
-3.2%
30d:
+29.82%
90d:
+5.38%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (30%)
Quality Score
29/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$51.60 – $63.85
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
13.8x
FAIR
vs 13.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$76.33
+17.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$59.87 / $69.62
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.40
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMG is currently trading at $65.04, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.60 to $63.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.8) is in line with its historical norms (13.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $59.87, while resistance sits at $69.62.
Market Sentiment: SMG scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $76.33 (+17.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $59.87, while resistance sits at $69.62.
Market Sentiment: SMG scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $76.33 (+17.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$51.60 -
$63.85
Company Quality Score
29/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
29.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$51.60 -
$63.85
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$59.87
Resistance Level
$69.62
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($76.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with -21.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 29/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.82
Wall Street Target
$76.33
(+17.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-21.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.5%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 13.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.34
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$67.67
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$69.02
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$64.94
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.7%)
$113.43
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 6.7%)
$78.92
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 6.7%)
$67.08
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.30
Bull Case
$102.20
(+57%)
Analyst growth 42.6%, PE expands to 21.7
Base Case
$92.91
(+43%)
Market implied 42.6%, PE stable at 19.7
Bear Case
$44.29
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SMG)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 4, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish StockTwits user reports a profitable quarter with $SMG and holds 550 shares at an average price of $64.25.
Key Retail Themes:
positive quarterly results
bullish sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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