The Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMG - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
$49.02
-1.00 (-2.00%)
▼
5d:
-3.67%
30d:
-18.26%
90d:
-26.92%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.64
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$50.07
2.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMG is currently trading at $49.02, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.88 to $60.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.4) compared to its historical average (13.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SMG scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.00 (+57.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SMG scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.00 (+57.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$51.88 -
$60.01
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 57.1% below Wall St target ($77.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.88 -
$60.01
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.90
Resistance Level
$53.56
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.38
Wall Street Target
$77.00
(+57.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.5%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 13.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.34
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$41.94
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$38.80
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→13)
$48.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 6.9%)
$117.80
(+140%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 6.9%)
$59.94
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 6.9%)
$50.95
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.51
Bull Case
$103.52
(+111%)
Analyst growth 88.1%, PE expands to 21.9
Base Case
$94.11
(+92%)
Market implied 88.1%, PE stable at 19.9
Bear Case
$34.01
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 13.1
Stabilization Target:
$61.86
(+26.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 12:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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