The Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMG - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
$56.47
0.31 (0.55%)
▲
5d:
-4.76%
30d:
-9.17%
90d:
-8.74%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.63
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMG is currently trading at $56.47, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.33 to $63.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (13.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $55.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SMG scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.17 (+36.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $55.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SMG scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.17 (+36.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$58.33 -
$63.03
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.7% below Wall St target ($77.17)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.33 -
$63.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.51
Resistance Level
$61.50
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.93
Wall Street Target
$77.17
(+36.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.5%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 13.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.44
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$52.48
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$50.59
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$56.38
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.2%)
$117.46
(+108%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$69.49
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 7.2%)
$59.07
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.56
Bull Case
$114.20
(+102%)
Analyst growth 84.9%, PE expands to 24.1
Base Case
$103.81
(+84%)
Market implied 84.9%, PE stable at 21.9
Bear Case
$38.19
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 13.3
Stabilization Target:
$62.94
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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