SMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMG - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
$63.91
-1.57 (-2.40%)
▼
5d:
-4.73%
30d:
+7.63%
90d:
+5.22%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
14d
Get Alerted When SMG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$84.02
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.17
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMG is currently trading at $63.91, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.99 to $67.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.6) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $62.07. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $73.00 (+14.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $62.07. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $73.00 (+14.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$58.99 -
$67.67
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($73.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.99 -
$67.67
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.60
Resistance Level
$62.07
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.59
Wall Street Target
$73.00
(+14.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.49
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$65.07
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$65.65
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$63.77
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.5%)
$130.67
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 8.5%)
$81.53
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 8.5%)
$69.30
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.48
Bull Case
$97.34
(+52%)
Analyst growth 35.1%, PE expands to 20.7
Base Case
$88.49
(+39%)
Market implied 35.1%, PE stable at 18.8
Bear Case
$44.53
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 4:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is SMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark J Scheiwer
BUY
693 shares
2026-02-24
Hagedorn Partnership, L.…
SELL
50000 shares
2026-02-12
Top Rated Agricultural Inputs Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Agricultural Inputs by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
CTVA
Corteva Inc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$90 | 65 BUY |
|
NTR
Nutrien Ltd |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$80 | 63 BUY |
|
MOS
The Mosaic Company |
BUY
20 analysts |
$27 | 58 HOLD |
|
FMC
FMC Corporation |
HOLD
20 analysts |
$16 | 53 HOLD |
|
CF
CF Industries Holdings I… |
SELL
21 analysts |
$126 | 59 HOLD |
