SMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMG - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
$61.01
-0.12 (-0.20%)
▼
5d:
+0.11%
30d:
-9.65%
90d:
+2.83%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When SMG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.25
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMG is currently trading at $61.01, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.91 to $69.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.9) is in line with its historical norms (13.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $58.56, while resistance sits at $63.65.
Market Sentiment: SMG scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.17 (+26.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $58.56, while resistance sits at $63.65.
Market Sentiment: SMG scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.17 (+26.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$61.91 -
$69.93
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (88/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.2% below Wall St target ($77.17)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 12% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$61.91 -
$69.93
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.56
Resistance Level
$63.65
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.92
Wall Street Target
$77.17
(+26.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.5%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 13.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.46
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$59.79
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$59.13
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$61.34
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.2%)
$116.87
(+91%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$75.22
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 7.2%)
$63.94
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.59
Bull Case
$119.69
(+96%)
Analyst growth 82.7%, PE expands to 25.3
Base Case
$108.81
(+78%)
Market implied 82.7%, PE stable at 23.0
Bear Case
$40.49
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.9 to 13.4
Stabilization Target:
$63.41
(+3.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is SMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Agricultural Inputs Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Agricultural Inputs by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
CTVA
Corteva Inc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$92 | 50 HOLD |
|
NTR
Nutrien Ltd |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$76 | 34 SELL |
|
MOS
The Mosaic Company |
BUY
20 analysts |
$26 | 36 SELL |
|
FMC
FMC Corporation |
HOLD
20 analysts |
$14 | 43 HOLD |
|
CF
CF Industries Holdings I… |
SELL
21 analysts |
$126 | 36 SELL |
