SONO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SONO - Sonos, Inc. Common Stock
$14.66
0.23 (1.59%)
▲
5d:
-0.2%
30d:
+9.4%
90d:
-1.15%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SONO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 22.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SONO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 22.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.95
Based on -6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SONO is currently trading at $14.66, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.57 to $15.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.4) compared to its historical average (31.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 22.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 87.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SONO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.02, while resistance sits at $17.60.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.12 (+30.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SONO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.02, while resistance sits at $17.60.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.12 (+30.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$13.57 -
$15.43
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.5% below Wall St target ($19.12)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.57 -
$15.43
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.02
Resistance Level
$17.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.44
Wall Street Target
$19.13
(+30.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
87.5%
Profit Margin
1.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-22.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 31.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-22.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.19
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$11.87
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.69
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→31)
$23.09
(+58%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -16.8%)
$15.34
(+5%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: -16.8%)
$10.69
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: -16.8%)
$9.08
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 37.31 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.39
Bull Case
$17.70
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 39.2
Base Case
$14.66
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 37.3
Bear Case
$11.21
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 33.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.4 to 31.2
Stabilization Target:
$31.67
(+116.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+116.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 5:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SONO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
15
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
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