Sonos (SONO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SONO - Sonos, Inc. Common Stock
$17.75
-0.14 (-0.78%)
▼
5d:
-0.5%
30d:
+17.24%
90d:
+30.32%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SONO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SONO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.63
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.47
32.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SONO is currently trading at $17.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.93 to $17.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.6) compared to its historical average (28.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 21.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 87.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SONO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SONO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SONO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SONO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.93 -
$17.19
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.62)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.93 -
$17.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.28
Resistance Level
$18.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.60
Wall Street Target
$18.63
(+4.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
87.5%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-21.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 28.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-21.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.97
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$14.38
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$12.94
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→28)
$26.64
(+50%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 7.0%)
$32.58
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 7.0%)
$21.72
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 7.0%)
$18.47
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.45
Bull Case
$39.36
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 43.7
Base Case
$35.78
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 39.8
Bear Case
$12.17
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 28.0
Stabilization Target:
$36.54
(+105.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+105.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SONO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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