South Plains Financial (SPFI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPFI - South Plains Financial, Inc. Common Stock
$42.28
0.55 (1.32%)
▲
5d:
-1.33%
30d:
-3.27%
90d:
-0.66%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SPFI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SPFI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.82
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPFI is currently trading at $42.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.80 to $44.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPFI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $40.69, while resistance sits at $44.67.
Market Sentiment: SPFI scores 11/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.75 (+20.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPFI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $40.69, while resistance sits at $44.67.
Market Sentiment: SPFI scores 11/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.75 (+20.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$42.80 -
$44.78
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (11/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($50.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.80 -
$44.78
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.69
Resistance Level
$44.67
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.15
Wall Street Target
$50.75
(+20.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Profit Margin
29.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.03
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$41.77
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$41.52
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$42.16
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 6.8%)
$103.54
(+145%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 6.8%)
$51.49
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 6.8%)
$43.77
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.68
Bull Case
$51.98
(+23%)
Analyst growth 13.2%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$47.26
(+12%)
Market implied 13.2%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$28.38
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$42.93
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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