South Plains Financial (SPFI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPFI - South Plains Financial, Inc. Common Stock
$44.76
0.12 (0.27%)
▲
5d:
-1.17%
30d:
-1.69%
90d:
+7.18%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SPFI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SPFI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.82
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPFI is currently trading at $44.76, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.98 to $45.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPFI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.75 (+13.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPFI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.75 (+13.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$43.98 -
$45.37
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($50.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.98 -
$45.37
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.68
Resistance Level
$45.89
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.74
Wall Street Target
$50.75
(+13.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Profit Margin
29.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.34
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$45.93
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$46.53
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.62
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.8%)
$102.37
(+129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 6.8%)
$54.51
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 6.8%)
$46.33
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.65
Bull Case
$56.07
(+25%)
Analyst growth 14.2%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$50.97
(+14%)
Market implied 14.2%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$30.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 10:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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