SPG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPG - Simon Property Group, Inc.
$219.49
0.72 (0.33%)
▲
5d:
-2.45%
30d:
+3.13%
90d:
+9.43%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
27d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SPG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SPG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$208.49
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$129.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPG is currently trading at $219.49, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $208.85 to $224.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 32.6) compared to its historical average (28.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $213.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $213.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$208.85 -
$224.02
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($221.63)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$208.85 -
$224.02
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$202.20
Resistance Level
$213.08
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.56
Wall Street Target
$221.63
(+1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.4%
Profit Margin
70.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
32.6 vs 28.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$229.15
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$239.23
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$249.76
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→29)
PE COMPRESSION
$219.36
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.6, Growth: 4.7%)
$251.64
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.7%)
$168.31
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 4.7%)
$143.06
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.41
Bull Case
$120.84
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 16.8
Base Case
$109.86
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 15.3
Bear Case
$149.40
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-29
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