SPG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPG - Simon Property Group, Inc.
$229.37
-1.07 (-0.46%)
▼
5d:
-0.18%
30d:
+2.86%
90d:
+12.6%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
6d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SPG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SPG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$208.49
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$129.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPG is currently trading at $229.37, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $220.24 to $230.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 34.0) compared to its historical average (29.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $224.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SPG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $224.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SPG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$220.24 -
$230.51
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($227.95)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.5% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$220.24 -
$230.51
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$224.22
Resistance Level
$238.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.03
Wall Street Target
$227.95
(-0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.4%
Profit Margin
70.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
34.0 vs 29.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$241.99
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$255.29
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$269.34
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→29)
PE COMPRESSION
$229.53
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.0, Growth: 4.7%)
$262.96
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 4.7%)
$160.19
(-30%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 4.7%)
$136.16
(-41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 35.59 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.45
Bull Case
$276.96
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 37.4
Base Case
$229.37
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 35.6
Bear Case
$175.47
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 32.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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