Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPG - Simon Property Group, Inc.
$200.95
0.14 (0.07%)
▲
5d:
-1.89%
30d:
-4.4%
90d:
-10.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SPG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SPG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$273.85
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$170.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPG is currently trading at $200.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $203.00 to $213.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.6) is in line with its historical norms (29.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPG is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $198.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.44 (+16.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPG is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $198.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.44 (+16.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$203.00 -
$213.56
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SPG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($234.44)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.2% growth with 19.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$203.00 -
$213.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$198.41
Resistance Level
$206.38
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.57
Wall Street Target
$234.44
(+16.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Profit Margin
66.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
29.6 vs 29.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$201.35
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$201.75
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$202.16
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→29)
PE COMPRESSION
$201.02
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.6, Growth: 16.2%)
$315.15
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 16.2%)
$217.45
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 16.2%)
$184.83
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.18
Bull Case
$110.45
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$100.41
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$136.55
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 6:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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