SPG Simon Property Group, Inc. REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS Best REITs Stocks 2026 →

Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$234.75
+0.27 (+0.12%) ▲
5d: +2.74% 30d: +16.99% 90d: +6.0%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (22%)
Quality Score
25/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$199.64 – $220.35
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
34.6x STRETCHED
vs 29.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$232.29
-1.0% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$213.75 / $235.37
Trend: Downtrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SPG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$238.60
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$148.15
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SPG is currently trading at $234.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $199.64 to $220.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 34.6) compared to its historical average (29.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.3% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SPG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $235.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: SPG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $199.64 - $220.35
Company Quality Score 25/100 (STRONG SELL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 22.4%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $199.64 - $220.35
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $213.75
Resistance Level $235.37
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Nov 11, 2026

Protect Your Profits

SPG is technically overbought (RSI 80). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.

View Profit Protection Plan

Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.5% above its trading range)
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($232.29)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.3% growth with 13.3% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 25/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 34.62
Wall Street Target $232.29 (-1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 13.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -17.1%
Profit Margin 63.1%
Valuation Premium vs History +5.3% premium
PE vs Historical 34.6 vs 29.6 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +5.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $247.19 (+5%)
2-Year Target $260.29 (+11%)
3-Year Target $274.09 (+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 35→30) PE COMPRESSION $234.32 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 34.6, Growth: 10.2%) $313.77 (+34%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.2%) $179.98 (-23%)
Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 10.2%) $152.98 (-35%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.85
Bull Case $128.96 (-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 18.6
Base Case $117.24 (-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 16.9
Bear Case $159.45 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SPG)

Bullish 2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: Tanger (SKT) reported Q3 FFO beating estimates, revenue missing, and shares up 12.7% YTD.
Key Retail Themes: Company's ability to surpass FFO and revenue estimates Positive stock performance YTD
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check

Is SPG showing a specific setup today?

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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