SPRO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPRO - Spero Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock
$2.18
0.08 (3.81%)
▲
5d:
-0.46%
30d:
-14.17%
90d:
-18.35%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SPRO appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -24.6% annual earnings decline despite 75% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SPRO appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -24.6% annual earnings decline despite 75% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.13
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.43
50.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPRO is currently trading at $2.18, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.08 to $2.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.2) compared to its historical average (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 24.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 75.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPRO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.00 (+83.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPRO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.00 (+83.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$2.08 -
$2.68
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
87.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 83.5% below Wall St target ($4.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.08 -
$2.68
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.26
(11.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.52
Resistance Level
$3.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.25
Wall Street Target
$4.00
(+83.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-95.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.3%
Profit Margin
24.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-24.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.3 vs 7.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-24.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1.96
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$1.77
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$1.59
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→8)
$3.71
(+70%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.27
Bull Case
$4.62
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 8.6
Base Case
$4.20
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 7.8
Bear Case
$1.43
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.3 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$5.09
(+133.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+133.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPRO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Esther Rajavelu
SELL
87917 shares
2026-02-06
Esther Rajavelu
SELL
18442 shares
2026-02-02
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