SPS Commerce (SPSC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPSC - SPS Commerce, Inc.
$82.68
5.45 (7.06%)
â˛
5d:
-1.82%
30d:
+8.21%
90d:
+50.55%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SPSC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SPSC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.68
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPSC is currently trading at $82.68, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.32 to $82.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.5) compared to its historical average (13.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $76.84, while resistance sits at $89.44. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: SPSC scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $76.84, while resistance sits at $89.44. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: SPSC scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$75.32 -
$82.92
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
43.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SPSC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.1%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($75.45)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.9% growth with 5.6% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.32 -
$82.92
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.84
Resistance Level
$89.44
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.53
Wall Street Target
$75.45
(-8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-63.9%
Profit Margin
10.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.9% premium
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 13.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.90
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$89.25
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$92.74
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16â14)
PE COMPRESSION
$82.42
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.6%)
$137.56
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 8.6%)
$105.89
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 8.6%)
$90.01
(+9%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.05
Bull Case
$169.91
(+106%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 41.4
Base Case
$154.46
(+87%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 37.7
Bear Case
$52.52
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Marty M Reaume
SELL
1000 shares
2026-04-07
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Advanced SPSC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SPSC price and gamma walls.
