SPS Commerce (SPSC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$82.85
+1.93 (+2.39%)
▲
5d:
-2.8%
30d:
-1.09%
90d:
+4.38%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
0d
Protect SPSC Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
55/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$81.79 – $88.17
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
15.2x
FAIR
vs 14.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$84.82
+2.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
7th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$79.00 / $88.61
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: SPSC is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$102.43
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPSC is currently trading at $82.85, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.79 to $88.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.2) is in line with its historical norms (14.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $79.00, while resistance sits at $88.61.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $79.00, while resistance sits at $88.61.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$81.79 -
$88.17
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
7th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$81.79 -
$88.17
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.13
(5.0%)
Support Level
$79.00
Resistance Level
$88.61
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding SPSC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 7th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($84.82)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (40/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.15
Wall Street Target
$84.82
(+2.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.9%
Profit Margin
10.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 14.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.67
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$86.54
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$88.44
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$82.90
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.4%)
$134.67
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 7.4%)
$102.73
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 7.4%)
$87.32
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.24
Bull Case
$178.02
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 39.7
Base Case
$161.84
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 36.1
Bear Case
$55.03
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SPSC)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment prevails on $SPSC as the stock is set to report earnings today, with investors optimistic about the company's history of beating earnings estimates. ATOSS Software and SPS Commerce, two cloud software stocks, were highlighted in a Yahoo Finance article as companies with strong free cash flow and potential for AI integration, making them attractive investments.
Key Retail Themes:
Earnings Report
Cloud Software
AI Integration
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 6:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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NEUTRAL
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