SPS Commerce (SPSC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPSC - SPS Commerce, Inc.
$82.35
-1.85 (-2.20%)
âŧ
5d:
+1.29%
30d:
-0.57%
90d:
+37.14%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SPSC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SPSC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$100.40
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPSC is currently trading at $82.35, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.97 to $83.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.5) compared to its historical average (13.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $78.88, while resistance sits at $85.31.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $78.88, while resistance sits at $85.31.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$79.97 -
$83.71
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
25th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SPSC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 25th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($75.45)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.5% growth with 5.6% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.97 -
$83.71
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$6.28
(7.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.88
Resistance Level
$85.31
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.46
Wall Street Target
$75.45
(-8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-63.9%
Profit Margin
10.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 13.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.23
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$88.22
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$91.30
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â14)
PE COMPRESSION
$82.07
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 8.6%)
$139.13
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 8.6%)
$105.47
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 8.6%)
$89.65
(+9%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.12
Bull Case
$185.24
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 43.7
Base Case
$168.40
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 39.7
Bear Case
$57.26
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 9:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Marty M Reaume
SELL
1000 shares
2026-04-07
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Advanced SPSC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SPSC price and gamma walls.
