SPS Commerce (SPSC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPSC - SPS Commerce, Inc.
$91.94
2.56 (2.86%)
▲
5d:
+5.9%
30d:
+13.1%
90d:
+50.33%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SPSC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SPSC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$101.87
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPSC is currently trading at $91.94, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.51 to $86.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.3) compared to its historical average (14.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $92.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SPSC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (26th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $78.36. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $92.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SPSC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (26th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $78.36. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$80.51 -
$86.19
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Options IV Signal
26th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
33.5%
Protect Your Profits
SPSC is technically overbought (RSI 72). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.7% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 26th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 14.8% above Wall St target ($78.36)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.0% growth with 5.6% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.51 -
$86.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.43
(8.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$82.51
Resistance Level
$92.11
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.26
Wall Street Target
$78.36
(-14.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-63.9%
Profit Margin
10.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.0% premium
PE vs Historical
17.3 vs 14.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$98.38
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$105.26
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$112.63
(+23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$92.00
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.6%)
$135.57
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 8.6%)
$117.83
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 8.6%)
$96.25
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.10
Bull Case
$196.64
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 46.8
Base Case
$178.76
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 42.6
Bear Case
$60.78
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 12:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SPSC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SPSC price and gamma walls.
