SPSC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPSC - SPS Commerce, Inc.
$77.00
3.61 (4.92%)
▲
5d:
+17.29%
30d:
+30.36%
90d:
+30.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: SPSC is 16.5% above its trading range ($66.10). Market expects 1.0% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: SPSC is 16.5% above its trading range ($66.10). Market expects 1.0% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.67
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPSC is currently trading at $77.00, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.10 to $66.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.1) is in line with its historical norms (13.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: SPSC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: SPSC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$57.10 -
$66.10
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
SPSC is technically overbought (RSI 73). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+16.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.9%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($67.45)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.0% growth with 5.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to 16.5% overvaluation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.10 -
$66.10
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.67
Resistance Level
$78.33
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.10
Wall Street Target
$67.45
(-8.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.0%
Profit Margin
11.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 13.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.12
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$74.87
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$75.61
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$73.46
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 9.9%)
$143.17
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 9.9%)
$97.40
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 9.9%)
$82.79
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.27
Bull Case
$144.83
(+97%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.9
Base Case
$131.66
(+79%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 29.0
Bear Case
$44.76
(-39%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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1000 shares
2026-04-07
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2418 shares
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13384 shares
2026-02-20
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