STAG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STAG - STAG INDUSTRIAL, INC.
$37.97
-0.29 (-0.77%)
▼
5d:
-6.58%
30d:
-3.05%
90d:
-1.59%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: STAG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: STAG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.85
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STAG is currently trading at $37.97, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.48 to $40.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 34.0) is in line with its historical norms (34.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STAG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STAG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.48 -
$40.85
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.92)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.48 -
$40.85
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.91
Resistance Level
$42.18
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.96
Wall Street Target
$41.92
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.7%
Profit Margin
28.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
34.0 vs 34.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.15
(0%)
2-Year Target
$38.03
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$37.92
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→34)
$38.30
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.0, Growth: 79.6%)
$39.18
(+2%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 79.6%)
$23.92
(-38%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 79.6%)
$20.33
(-47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 31.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.23
Bull Case
$39.20
(+3%)
Analyst growth -8.4%, PE expands to 34.8
Base Case
$35.64
(-7%)
Market implied -8.4%, PE stable at 31.6
Bear Case
$26.46
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 34.0 to 34.3
Stabilization Target:
$38.64
(+1.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STAG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matts Pinard
SELL
25242 shares
2026-02-23
William R Crooker
SELL
93732 shares
2026-02-23
Virgis Colbert
SELL
18000 shares
2026-02-19
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