STWD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STWD - STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC.
$16.38
-0.03 (-0.18%)
▼
5d:
+0.49%
30d:
+0.31%
90d:
-5.54%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STWD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STWD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.12
Based on 13.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.94
17.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STWD is currently trading at $16.38, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.19 to $16.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STWD scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.88 (+20.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STWD scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.88 (+20.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$16.19 -
$16.70
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($19.88)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 75/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.19 -
$16.70
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.06
Resistance Level
$16.87
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.74
Wall Street Target
$19.88
(+20.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-97.4%
Profit Margin
38.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.26
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$15.97
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$15.68
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$16.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 22.4%)
$69.70
(+321%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 22.4%)
$30.37
(+83%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 22.4%)
$25.81
(+56%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.59
Bull Case
$35.73
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.3
Base Case
$32.48
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.5
Bear Case
$11.04
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$17.42
(+5.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 4:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STWD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey G Dishner
SELL
7013 shares
2026-04-01
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