STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST (STWD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STWD - STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC.
$12.13
-0.06 (-0.49%)
▼
5d:
-2.02%
30d:
-19.67%
90d:
-25.72%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 06, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: STWD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: STWD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.37
Based on 14.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.10
39.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STWD is currently trading at $12.13, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.45 to $14.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.4) compared to its historical average (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STWD scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.25 (+58.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STWD scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.25 (+58.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.45 -
$14.72
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (78/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 58.7% below Wall St target ($19.25)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 10% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.45 -
$14.72
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.84
Resistance Level
$12.91
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.41
Wall Street Target
$19.25
(+58.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-97.4%
Profit Margin
38.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 8.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.92
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$9.83
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$8.84
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→9)
$12.27
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 24.4%)
$72.30
(+496%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 24.4%)
$23.35
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: 24.4%)
$19.85
(+64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.60
Bull Case
$26.82
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.4
Base Case
$24.38
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$8.29
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$16.83
(+38.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 9:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STWD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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