STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST (STWD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$11.97
+0.08 (+0.67%)
▲
5d:
-7.57%
30d:
-4.09%
90d:
-26.79%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (57%)
Quality Score
41/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$12.15 – $12.76
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
6.5x
CHEAP
vs 8.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$18.38
+54.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$11.76 / $13.22
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: STWD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.07
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.05
33.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STWD is currently trading at $11.97, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.15 to $12.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.5) compared to its historical average (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STWD scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.38 (+54.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STWD scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.38 (+54.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.15 -
$12.76
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$12.15 -
$12.76
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$11.76
Resistance Level
$13.22
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 54.5% below Wall St target ($18.38)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.54
Wall Street Target
$18.38
(+54.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-97.4%
Profit Margin
-72.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.5 vs 8.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.77
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$9.76
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$8.84
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$11.90
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.7%)
$65.05
(+447%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.5, Growth: 21.7%)
$21.41
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 21.7%)
$18.20
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.60
Bull Case
$28.34
(+135%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.6
Base Case
$25.76
(+114%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.5
Bear Case
$8.76
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.5 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$16.00
(+34.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (STWD)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment on StockTwits surged after a user criticized management for not setting a dividend during earnings call, implying a potential dividend cut was imminent.
Key Retail Themes:
Management decision
Dividend
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 1:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STWD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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