STWD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STWD - STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC.
$15.98
-0.25 (-1.54%)
▼
5d:
-3.27%
30d:
-2.14%
90d:
-12.96%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: STWD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: STWD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.51
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.46
2.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STWD is currently trading at $15.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.36 to $16.80. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STWD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.25 (+26.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STWD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.25 (+26.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.36 -
$16.80
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.7% below Wall St target ($20.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.36 -
$16.80
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.94
Resistance Level
$16.98
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.37
Wall Street Target
$20.25
(+26.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.4%
Profit Margin
60.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.44
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$14.91
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$14.40
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$16.00
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.8%)
$56.79
(+255%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 12.8%)
$22.94
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 12.8%)
$19.50
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.93
Bull Case
$35.71
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.2
Base Case
$32.46
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$11.04
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$17.75
(+11.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STWD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey G Dishner
SELL
7013 shares
2026-04-01
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