STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST (STWD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STWD - STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC.
$13.18
-0.32 (-2.37%)
▼
5d:
-8.22%
30d:
-15.13%
90d:
-20.02%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: STWD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: STWD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.15
Based on 14.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.58
36.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STWD is currently trading at $13.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.46 to $16.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.9) compared to its historical average (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STWD scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.88 (+50.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STWD scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.88 (+50.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.46 -
$16.01
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.8% below Wall St target ($19.88)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.46 -
$16.01
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.07
Resistance Level
$15.23
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.94
Wall Street Target
$19.88
(+50.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-97.4%
Profit Margin
38.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 9.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.05
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$11.01
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$10.06
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$13.19
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 24.3%)
$74.41
(+465%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 24.3%)
$25.33
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 24.3%)
$21.53
(+63%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.55
Bull Case
$29.70
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.0
Base Case
$27.00
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.6
Bear Case
$9.18
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$17.27
(+31.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 8:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STWD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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