STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST (STWD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STWD - STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC.
$15.62
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-1.64%
30d:
-5.1%
90d:
-7.79%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: STWD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: STWD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.22
Based on 14.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.63
24.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STWD is currently trading at $15.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.80 to $16.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.88 (+27.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.88 (+27.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$15.80 -
$16.42
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.2% below Wall St target ($19.88)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.80 -
$16.42
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.47
Resistance Level
$16.18
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.25
Wall Street Target
$19.88
(+27.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-97.4%
Profit Margin
38.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 9.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.07
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$14.55
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$14.04
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$15.65
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 24.0%)
$72.82
(+366%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 24.0%)
$29.78
(+91%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 24.0%)
$25.32
(+62%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.58
Bull Case
$34.36
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.6
Base Case
$31.24
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.9
Bear Case
$10.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$17.42
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STWD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey G Dishner
SELL
7013 shares
2026-04-01
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