Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBI - Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.
$99.09
0.19 (0.19%)
▲
5d:
+1.31%
30d:
-1.75%
90d:
-1.27%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TCBI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TCBI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$144.58
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$89.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBI is currently trading at $99.09, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.50 to $100.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $99.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TCBI scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.31 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $99.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TCBI scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.31 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$97.50 -
$100.30
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($109.31)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 74/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$97.50 -
$100.30
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.94
Resistance Level
$99.89
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.04
Wall Street Target
$109.31
(+10.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.8%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$98.79
(0%)
2-Year Target
$98.50
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$98.20
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$99.48
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 11.2%)
$228.02
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 11.2%)
$136.15
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 11.2%)
$115.72
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.69
Bull Case
$116.40
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.0%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$105.82
(+7%)
Market implied 7.0%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$67.25
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$100.38
(+1.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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