TCBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBI - Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.
$98.30
0.26 (0.27%)
â˛
5d:
-2.69%
30d:
-0.37%
90d:
-0.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TCBI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TCBI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$144.58
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$89.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBI is currently trading at $98.30, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $98.26 to $102.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $97.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.31 (+11.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $97.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.31 (+11.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$98.26 -
$102.97
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($109.31)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$98.26 -
$102.97
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$97.56
Resistance Level
$101.91
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.92
Wall Street Target
$109.31
(+11.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.8%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$97.35
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$96.67
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$96.00
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â12)
$98.29
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 11.2%)
$226.89
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 11.2%)
$134.70
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 11.2%)
$114.50
(+17%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.69
Bull Case
$115.58
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.0%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$105.07
(+7%)
Market implied 7.0%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$66.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$100.38
(+2.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 4:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Paola M Arbour
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-11
Robert W Stallings
BUY
5500 shares
2026-03-06
Robert W Stallings
BUY
20000 shares
2026-03-05
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