TCBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBI - Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.
$101.35
1.75 (1.76%)
▲
5d:
+0.62%
30d:
+2.37%
90d:
+7.85%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TCBI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TCBI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$141.85
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBI is currently trading at $101.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $98.14 to $101.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 69.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $102.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $102.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$98.14 -
$101.14
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($107.69)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$98.14 -
$101.14
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.76
Resistance Level
$102.99
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.13
Wall Street Target
$107.69
(+6.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
69.6%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$101.25
(0%)
2-Year Target
$101.15
(0%)
3-Year Target
$101.05
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$101.64
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.7%)
$240.06
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 9.7%)
$133.69
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 9.7%)
$113.63
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.43
Bull Case
$122.56
(+23%)
Analyst growth 12.5%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$111.42
(+12%)
Market implied 12.5%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$67.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$101.94
(+0.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Paola M Arbour
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-11
Robert W Stallings
BUY
5500 shares
2026-03-06
Robert W Stallings
BUY
20000 shares
2026-03-05
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