Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBI - Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.
$98.78
5.29 (5.66%)
▲
5d:
+8.91%
30d:
+4.9%
90d:
-0.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
4d
Get Alerted When TCBI Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TCBI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TCBI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$140.35
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBI is currently trading at $98.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $90.74 to $95.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $99.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: TCBI scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $99.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: TCBI scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$90.74 -
$95.89
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($105.08)
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$90.74 -
$95.89
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$87.75
Resistance Level
$99.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.00
Wall Street Target
$105.08
(+6.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.8%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$98.68
(0%)
2-Year Target
$98.58
(0%)
3-Year Target
$98.48
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$98.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.6%)
$221.07
(+124%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 10.6%)
$133.56
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 10.6%)
$113.53
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.69
Bull Case
$110.10
(+12%)
Analyst growth 7.1%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$100.09
(+1%)
Market implied 7.1%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$63.57
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$98.79
(+0.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TCBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Banks - Regional Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Banks - Regional by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
CFG
Citizens Financial Group… |
STRONG BUY
20 analysts |
$78 | 65 BUY |
|
USB
U.S. Bancorp |
BUY
24 analysts |
$69 | 59 HOLD |
|
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares In… |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$19 | 69 BUY |
|
PNFP
Pinnacle Financial Partn… |
STRONG BUY
22 analysts |
$119 | 50 HOLD |
|
FLG
Flagstar Financial, Inc. |
BUY
18 analysts |
$15 | 70 BUY |
