TCBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBI - Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.
$101.11
2.26 (2.29%)
▲
5d:
+2.76%
30d:
-2.73%
90d:
-0.26%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$144.94
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$90.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBI is currently trading at $101.11, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $99.79 to $104.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $104.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.31 (+10.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $104.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.31 (+10.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$99.79 -
$104.67
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($109.31)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$99.79 -
$104.67
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.96
Resistance Level
$104.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.98
Wall Street Target
$109.31
(+10.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.8%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$98.36
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$97.86
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$97.37
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$99.13
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 11.2%)
$235.37
(+138%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 11.2%)
$136.07
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 11.2%)
$115.66
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.69
Bull Case
$116.51
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.3%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$105.91
(+7%)
Market implied 7.3%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$67.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$100.63
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Paola M Arbour
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-11
Robert W Stallings
BUY
5500 shares
2026-03-06
Robert W Stallings
BUY
20000 shares
2026-03-05
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