TCBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBI - Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.
$101.87
-0.49 (-0.48%)
▼
5d:
-3.28%
30d:
+1.68%
90d:
+1.07%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$144.70
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$89.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBI is currently trading at $101.87, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $100.35 to $103.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $102.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $102.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$100.35 -
$103.59
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($109.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$100.35 -
$103.59
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.76
Resistance Level
$102.99
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.17
Wall Street Target
$109.38
(+7.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
69.6%
Profit Margin
28.7%
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$101.87
(0%)
2-Year Target
$101.87
(0%)
3-Year Target
$101.87
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$102.09
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.5%)
$246.07
(+142%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 10.5%)
$137.54
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 10.5%)
$116.91
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.43
Bull Case
$126.81
(+25%)
Analyst growth 12.6%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$115.28
(+13%)
Market implied 12.6%, PE stable at 13.8
Bear Case
$69.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 9:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Paola M Arbour
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-11
Robert W Stallings
BUY
5500 shares
2026-03-06
Robert W Stallings
BUY
20000 shares
2026-03-05
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