Trico Bancshares (TCBK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$51.92
-0.42 (-0.80%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.69%
30d:
+1.68%
90d:
-10.56%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (77%)
Quality Score
42/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$51.57 â $53.24
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.7x
FAIR
vs 12.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$57.84
+11.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$51.77 / $55.27
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TCBK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.61
Based on -7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBK is currently trading at $51.92, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.57 to $53.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.84 (+11.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.84 (+11.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$51.57 -
$53.24
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$51.57 -
$53.24
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$51.77
Resistance Level
$55.27
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($57.84)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.68
Wall Street Target
$57.84
(+11.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.5%
Profit Margin
31.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.35
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$50.78
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$50.23
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â12)
$52.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -19.1%)
$87.75
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: -19.1%)
$51.62
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: -19.1%)
$43.88
(-16%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.32
Bull Case
$59.23
(+14%)
Analyst growth 2.9%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$53.84
(+4%)
Market implied 2.9%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$35.59
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.7 to 12.1
Stabilization Target:
$53.77
(+3.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.6%
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:34 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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NEUTRAL
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