Trico Bancshares (TCBK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBK - Trico Bancshares
$53.53
-0.14 (-0.26%)
▼
5d:
-1.44%
30d:
-7.07%
90d:
+2.86%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TCBK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TCBK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.61
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBK is currently trading at $53.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.66 to $57.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $52.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TCBK scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.81 (+17.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $52.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TCBK scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.81 (+17.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$53.66 -
$57.24
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (78/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($62.81)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 78/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$53.66 -
$57.24
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.54
Resistance Level
$54.68
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.22
Wall Street Target
$62.81
(+17.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.2%
Profit Margin
31.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.74
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$53.96
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$54.17
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$53.66
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 2.1%)
$94.06
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 2.1%)
$56.97
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 2.1%)
$48.42
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.19
Bull Case
$61.74
(+15%)
Analyst growth 4.6%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$56.13
(+5%)
Market implied 4.6%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$36.50
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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