Trico Bancshares (TCBK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBK - Trico Bancshares
$54.39
1.60 (3.03%)
▲
5d:
+4.82%
30d:
+5.73%
90d:
-6.42%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TCBK is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TCBK is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.32
Based on 3.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBK is currently trading at $54.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.37 to $53.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $54.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $54.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$51.37 -
$53.22
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($58.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (53/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.37 -
$53.22
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.29
Resistance Level
$54.48
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.44
Wall Street Target
$58.67
(+7.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.2%
Profit Margin
31.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.93
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$55.48
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$56.04
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$54.50
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.0%)
$92.03
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 2.0%)
$57.65
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 2.0%)
$49.00
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.17
Bull Case
$60.88
(+12%)
Analyst growth 4.8%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$55.35
(+2%)
Market implied 4.8%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$35.90
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 11:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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