TCBK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBK - Trico Bancshares
$55.07
-0.61 (-1.10%)
▼
5d:
-4.34%
30d:
-7.1%
90d:
+8.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TCBK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TCBK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.61
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBK is currently trading at $55.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.58 to $59.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.7) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $55.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.81 (+12.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $55.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.81 (+12.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$56.58 -
$59.45
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($62.81)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$56.58 -
$59.45
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.02
Resistance Level
$58.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.71
Wall Street Target
$62.81
(+12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.2%
Profit Margin
31.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.63
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$57.59
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$58.57
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$55.77
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 2.1%)
$93.60
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 2.1%)
$59.26
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 2.1%)
$50.37
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.10
Bull Case
$65.59
(+19%)
Analyst growth 6.9%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$59.63
(+8%)
Market implied 6.9%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$37.94
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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