TCBK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBK - Trico Bancshares
$52.67
1.12 (2.16%)
▲
5d:
+1.94%
30d:
+3.68%
90d:
+11.73%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TCBK is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TCBK is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.09
Based on 3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBK is currently trading at $52.67, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.90 to $51.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $52.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TCBK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $52.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TCBK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$49.90 -
$51.85
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($56.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.90 -
$51.85
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$49.18
Resistance Level
$52.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.11
Wall Street Target
$56.00
(+6.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.0%
Profit Margin
31.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.09
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$53.52
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$53.94
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$52.55
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.1%)
$103.73
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 3.1%)
$57.69
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 3.1%)
$49.04
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.94
Bull Case
$62.59
(+19%)
Analyst growth 10.4%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$56.90
(+8%)
Market implied 10.4%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$35.06
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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