TCPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCPC - BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Common Stock
$3.73
-0.19 (-4.85%)
▼
5d:
-0.53%
30d:
-15.03%
90d:
-9.69%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.29
Based on -4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCPC is currently trading at $3.73, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.83 to $4.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.3) compared to its historical average (6.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCPC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.17 (+11.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCPC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.17 (+11.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.83 -
$4.30
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($4.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.83 -
$4.30
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.67
Resistance Level
$3.98
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.27
Wall Street Target
$4.17
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-23.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Profit Margin
-66.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.3 vs 6.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.57
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$3.41
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$3.26
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$3.71
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -13.5%)
$11.30
(+203%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.3, Growth: -13.5%)
$2.72
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.5, Growth: -13.5%)
$2.31
(-38%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.3 to 6.0
Stabilization Target:
$4.24
(+13.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 6:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:28 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Patrick Wolfe
BUY
6850 shares
2026-03-13
Patrick Wolfe
BUY
2075 shares
2026-03-13
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