TCPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCPC - BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Common Stock
$3.38
0.13 (4.00%)
▲
5d:
+6.96%
30d:
+0.6%
90d:
-23.01%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.04
Based on -5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCPC is currently trading at $3.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.17 to $3.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.6) compared to its historical average (5.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCPC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: TCPC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.17 (+28.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCPC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: TCPC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.17 (+28.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$3.17 -
$3.33
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 28.2% below Wall St target ($4.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.17 -
$3.33
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.10
Resistance Level
$3.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.64
Wall Street Target
$4.17
(+28.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-23.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Profit Margin
-66.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.6 vs 5.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.03
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$2.82
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$2.63
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$3.23
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -14.1%)
$10.58
(+226%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.6, Growth: -14.1%)
$2.37
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.9, Growth: -14.1%)
$2.01
(-38%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.6 to 5.7
Stabilization Target:
$3.99
(+22.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:44 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Patrick Wolfe
BUY
6850 shares
2026-03-13
Patrick Wolfe
BUY
2075 shares
2026-03-13
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