TCPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCPC - BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Common Stock
$3.15
-0.11 (-3.37%)
▼
5d:
-3.08%
30d:
-15.55%
90d:
-17.97%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.18
Based on -4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCPC is currently trading at $3.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.19 to $3.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.5) compared to its historical average (5.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCPC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.17 (+32.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCPC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.17 (+32.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.19 -
$3.63
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.3% below Wall St target ($4.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.19 -
$3.63
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.61
Resistance Level
$3.98
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.45
Wall Street Target
$4.17
(+32.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-23.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Profit Margin
-66.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.5 vs 5.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.88
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$2.63
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$2.41
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→6)
$3.13
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -13.5%)
$11.23
(+257%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.5, Growth: -13.5%)
$2.30
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.8, Growth: -13.5%)
$1.95
(-38%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.5 to 5.8
Stabilization Target:
$4.10
(+30.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:31 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Patrick Wolfe
BUY
6850 shares
2026-03-13
Patrick Wolfe
BUY
2075 shares
2026-03-13
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