BlackRock TCP Capital (TCPC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCPC - BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Common Stock
$3.98
-0.05 (-1.24%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.75%
30d:
-2.45%
90d:
+22.46%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TCPC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 14.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TCPC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 14.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1.00
Based on -16.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCPC is currently trading at $3.98, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.99 to $4.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.6) compared to its historical average (6.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 14.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCPC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.50 (+13.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCPC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.50 (+13.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$3.99 -
$4.12
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($4.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 14.8% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.99 -
$4.12
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.92
Resistance Level
$4.14
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.59
Wall Street Target
$4.50
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-22.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Profit Margin
-61.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+14.8% premium
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 6.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+14.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.57
(+15%)
2-Year Target
$5.25
(+32%)
3-Year Target
$6.02
(+51%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â6)
PE COMPRESSION
$3.96
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -36.6%)
$6.17
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: -36.6%)
$2.90
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: -36.6%)
$1.91
(-52%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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