BlackRock TCP Capital (TCPC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCPC - BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Common Stock
$4.07
0.06 (1.50%)
â˛
5d:
+0.25%
30d:
+1.75%
90d:
+9.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TCPC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 17.4% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TCPC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 17.4% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$0.96
Based on -16.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCPC is currently trading at $4.07, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.80 to $4.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (6.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 17.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCPC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TCPC scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCPC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TCPC scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$3.80 -
$4.21
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
44.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($4.33)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 17.4% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.80 -
$4.21
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.00
Resistance Level
$4.22
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.81
Wall Street Target
$4.33
(+6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-22.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Profit Margin
-61.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+17.4% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 6.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+17.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.78
(+17%)
2-Year Target
$5.61
(+38%)
3-Year Target
$6.59
(+62%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â6)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.10
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -36.6%)
$6.10
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: -36.6%)
$2.97
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: -36.6%)
$1.85
(-55%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 5:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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