BlackRock TCP Capital (TCPC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$4.10
-0.05 (-1.20%)
▼
5d:
-3.98%
30d:
+0.49%
90d:
+0.49%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (67%)
Quality Score
59/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$3.99 – $4.22
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.5x
STRETCHED
vs 6.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$4.17
+0.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$4.06 / $4.42
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: TCPC trades at premium valuation expecting 19.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$0.69
Based on -20.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCPC is currently trading at $4.10, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.99 to $4.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.4) compared to its historical average (6.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 19.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCPC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCPC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$3.99 -
$4.22
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$3.99 -
$4.22
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$4.06
Resistance Level
$4.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($4.17)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 19.1% growth which is achievable
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (49/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.45
Wall Street Target
$4.17
(+0.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-22.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Profit Margin
-61.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+19.1% premium
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 6.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+19.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.94
(+19%)
2-Year Target
$5.89
(+42%)
3-Year Target
$7.01
(+69%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.16
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -45.1%)
$5.25
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: -45.1%)
$3.03
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: -45.1%)
$1.80
(-57%)
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TCPC)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Mar 16, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish StockTwits message reveals a trader's anticipation of a dividend and a starter position at $3.64 for $TCPC.
Key Retail Themes:
Anticipation of dividend
Bullish sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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