Triumph Financial (TFIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFIN - Triumph Financial, Inc.
$66.04
-0.88 (-1.32%)
▼
5d:
-3.98%
30d:
-13.79%
90d:
-11.52%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$153.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$95.58
30.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFIN is currently trading at $66.04, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.40 to $77.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.9) compared to its historical average (28.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 193.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $65.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.80 (+29.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $65.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.80 (+29.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$69.40 -
$77.20
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.9% below Wall St target ($85.80)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (48/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.40 -
$77.20
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.37
Resistance Level
$72.53
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.89
Wall Street Target
$85.80
(+29.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
193.3%
Profit Margin
8.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.9 vs 28.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.83
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$54.21
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$49.11
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→28)
$66.08
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 54.5%)
$222.88
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 54.5%)
$215.25
(+226%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 54.5%)
$182.96
(+177%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$147.22
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 49.7
Base Case
$133.84
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 45.2
Bear Case
$45.51
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.9 to 28.1
Stabilization Target:
$88.85
(+34.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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