TFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFIN - Triumph Financial, Inc.
$78.31
-0.13 (-0.17%)
▼
5d:
-0.47%
30d:
+7.17%
90d:
+26.25%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$138.51
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.00
8.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFIN is currently trading at $78.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.54 to $77.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.5) is in line with its historical norms (29.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 531.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$72.54 -
$77.55
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($75.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$72.54 -
$77.55
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.94
Resistance Level
$74.13
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.53
Wall Street Target
$75.80
(-3.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
531.5%
Profit Margin
7.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.5 vs 29.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$76.90
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$75.52
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$74.16
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→29)
$78.40
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.5, Growth: 51.3%)
$264.30
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 51.3%)
$209.13
(+167%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 51.3%)
$177.76
(+127%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 10.55 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.42
Bull Case
$94.56
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 11.1
Base Case
$78.31
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$59.91
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.5 to 29.1
Stabilization Target:
$82.79
(+5.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 10:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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