TFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFIN - Triumph Financial, Inc.
$74.95
1.02 (1.38%)
▲
5d:
-4.18%
30d:
-6.21%
90d:
+12.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$153.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$95.58
21.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFIN is currently trading at $74.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.17 to $79.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.7) compared to its historical average (28.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 193.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $72.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.80 (+14.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $72.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.80 (+14.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$75.17 -
$79.12
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($85.80)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.17 -
$79.12
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.82
Resistance Level
$78.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.70
Wall Street Target
$85.80
(+14.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
193.3%
Profit Margin
8.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.7 vs 28.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.45
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$66.23
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$62.25
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→29)
$74.85
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.7, Growth: 54.5%)
$252.96
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 54.5%)
$214.18
(+186%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 54.5%)
$182.05
(+143%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (50x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$162.65
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 55.0
Base Case
$147.86
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 50.0
Bear Case
$50.27
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.7 to 28.5
Stabilization Target:
$90.12
(+20.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 12:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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