Triumph Financial (TFIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$61.19
-0.39 (-0.64%)
▼
5d:
-5.72%
30d:
-1.98%
90d:
-21.99%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
47/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$61.55 – $63.41
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
17.5x
CHEAP
vs 26.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$76.00
+23.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$60.81 / $66.61
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$171.08
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.22
42.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFIN is currently trading at $61.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.55 to $63.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.5) compared to its historical average (26.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1261.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $60.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $76.00 (+23.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $60.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $76.00 (+23.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$61.55 -
$63.41
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$61.55 -
$63.41
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$60.81
Resistance Level
$66.61
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.4% below Wall St target ($76.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.52
Wall Street Target
$76.00
(+23.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1261.8%
Profit Margin
10.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 26.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.42
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$49.88
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$44.89
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→26)
$67.63
(+10%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 72.3%)
$235.53
(+283%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 72.3%)
$207.83
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 72.3%)
$176.66
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.96
Bull Case
$124.38
(+102%)
Analyst growth 79.3%, PE expands to 35.4
Base Case
$113.08
(+84%)
Market implied 79.3%, PE stable at 32.2
Bear Case
$42.89
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.5 to 26.4
Stabilization Target:
$92.77
(+50.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+50.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TFIN)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 8, 2025
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A financial analyst with 80 followers on StockTwits announced a purchase of 29,000 shares of $TFIN, causing a bullish sentiment surge.
Key Retail Themes:
Buy the dip
Strong investor confidence
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 3:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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