Triumph Financial (TFIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFIN - Triumph Financial, Inc.
$61.13
1.14 (1.90%)
▲
5d:
+0.46%
30d:
-12.04%
90d:
-20.62%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$153.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$95.22
35.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFIN is currently trading at $61.13, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.63 to $70.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.4) compared to its historical average (27.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 193.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $59.01, while resistance sits at $63.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.60 (+31.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $59.01, while resistance sits at $63.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.60 (+31.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$61.63 -
$70.62
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.9% below Wall St target ($80.60)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$61.63 -
$70.62
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.01
Resistance Level
$63.47
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.41
Wall Street Target
$80.60
(+31.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
193.3%
Profit Margin
8.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.4 vs 27.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.02
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$49.52
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$44.56
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→28)
$63.15
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 54.3%)
$216.88
(+255%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.4, Growth: 54.3%)
$206.31
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 54.3%)
$175.37
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$131.98
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.6
Base Case
$119.98
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.5
Bear Case
$40.79
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.4 to 27.5
Stabilization Target:
$86.62
(+41.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 7:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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