TFS Financial (TFSL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFSL - TFS Financial Corporation
$17.01
-0.07 (-0.41%)
▼
5d:
-2.8%
30d:
-2.52%
90d:
+1.25%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TFSL is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TFSL is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.13
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFSL is currently trading at $17.01, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.22 to $17.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 43.6) is in line with its historical norms (42.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.00 (+11.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.00 (+11.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$17.22 -
$17.90
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($19.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (41/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.22 -
$17.90
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.92
Resistance Level
$18.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
43.62
Wall Street Target
$19.00
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.5%
Profit Margin
29.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
43.6 vs 42.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.20
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$17.39
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$17.58
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→42)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.05
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 43.6, Growth: 8.3%)
$21.63
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.3%)
$10.00
(-41%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$8.50
(-50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (44x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.36
Bull Case
$20.35
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.3%, PE expands to 52.2
Base Case
$18.50
(+9%)
Market implied 8.3%, PE stable at 47.4
Bear Case
$11.61
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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