TFSL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFSL - TFS Financial Corporation
$17.64
0.14 (0.80%)
▲
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
-2.86%
90d:
+11.22%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TFSL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TFSL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.13
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFSL is currently trading at $17.64, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.52 to $18.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 44.9) is in line with its historical norms (42.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TFSL scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TFSL scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$17.52 -
$18.36
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($19.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 72/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.52 -
$18.36
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.14
Resistance Level
$17.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
44.87
Wall Street Target
$19.00
(+8.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.5%
Profit Margin
29.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
44.9 vs 42.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.89
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$18.28
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$18.68
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 45→42)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.53
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 44.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$22.25
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$9.95
(-43%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$8.46
(-52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (45x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.36
Bull Case
$20.63
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.3%, PE expands to 52.9
Base Case
$18.75
(+6%)
Market implied 8.3%, PE stable at 48.1
Bear Case
$11.77
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 3:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Anthony J Asher
BUY
5000 shares
2026-03-12
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