TFS Financial (TFSL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFSL - TFS Financial Corporation
$16.66
0.27 (1.62%)
▲
5d:
+1.99%
30d:
+0.94%
90d:
-8.44%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TFSL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TFSL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.13
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFSL is currently trading at $16.66, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.21 to $16.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 42.7) is in line with its historical norms (42.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TFSL scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TFSL scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$16.21 -
$16.81
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 70/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.21 -
$16.81
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.95
Resistance Level
$16.67
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.71
Wall Street Target
$18.25
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.5%
Profit Margin
29.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
42.7 vs 42.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.70
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$16.76
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$16.81
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 43→42)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.65
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 42.7, Growth: 8.3%)
$21.18
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$9.85
(-41%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$8.37
(-50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (43x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.36
Bull Case
$19.53
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.3%, PE expands to 50.1
Base Case
$17.76
(+7%)
Market implied 8.3%, PE stable at 45.5
Bear Case
$11.15
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 9:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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