TFSL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFSL - TFS Financial Corporation
$18.41
0.36 (1.99%)
▲
5d:
+1.21%
30d:
+3.08%
90d:
+22.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TFSL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TFSL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.08
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFSL is currently trading at $18.41, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.37 to $18.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 49.8) compared to its historical average (41.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $16.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $16.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$17.37 -
$18.29
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
40.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 13.1% above Wall St target ($16.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.0% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.37 -
$18.29
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.95
Resistance Level
$19.30
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
49.76
Wall Street Target
$16.00
(-13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Profit Margin
27.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.0% premium
PE vs Historical
49.8 vs 41.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.51
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$20.69
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$21.93
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 50→42)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.42
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 49.8, Growth: 10.4%)
$24.80
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.4%)
$10.33
(-44%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 10.4%)
$8.78
(-52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (55x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (50x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 54.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.33
Bull Case
$22.26
(+21%)
Analyst growth 12.1%, PE expands to 60.2
Base Case
$20.24
(+10%)
Market implied 12.1%, PE stable at 54.7
Bear Case
$12.27
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 46.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anthony J Asher
BUY
5000 shares
2026-03-12
Gavin B Stefanski
SELL
7000 shares
2026-02-20
Marc A Stefanski
SELL
36844 shares
2026-02-17
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