TFSL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFSL - TFS Financial Corporation
$16.79
0.18 (1.05%)
▲
5d:
+1.67%
30d:
+5.83%
90d:
+23.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TFSL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TFSL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.08
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFSL is currently trading at $16.79, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.71 to $16.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 44.9) compared to its historical average (40.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$15.71 -
$16.62
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
44.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($15.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.71 -
$16.62
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.55
Resistance Level
$16.83
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
44.89
Wall Street Target
$15.50
(-6.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Profit Margin
27.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
44.9 vs 40.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.16
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$17.72
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$18.31
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 45→41)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.60
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 44.9, Growth: 10.4%)
$22.38
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.4%)
$10.86
(-35%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 10.4%)
$9.23
(-44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (50x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (45x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.33
Bull Case
$20.25
(+22%)
Analyst growth 12.1%, PE expands to 54.7
Base Case
$18.41
(+11%)
Market implied 12.1%, PE stable at 49.8
Bear Case
$11.17
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anthony J Asher
BUY
5000 shares
2026-03-12
Gavin B Stefanski
SELL
7000 shares
2026-02-20
Marc A Stefanski
SELL
36844 shares
2026-02-17
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