TFSL
TFS Financial Corporation
SAVINGS INSTITUTION, FEDERALLY CHARTERED
Best Savings Banks Stocks 2026 →
TFS Financial (TFSL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$16.46
-0.08 (-0.48%)
âŧ
5d:
-1.5%
30d:
+1.76%
90d:
-6.32%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (68%)
Quality Score
44/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$16.23 â $16.66
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
42.2x
FAIR
vs 42.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$18.00
+9.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$16.08 / $16.98
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TFSL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.13
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFSL is currently trading at $16.46, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.23 to $16.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 42.2) is in line with its historical norms (42.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$16.23 -
$16.66
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$16.23 -
$16.66
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$16.08
Resistance Level
$16.98
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.21
Wall Street Target
$18.00
(+9.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.8%
Profit Margin
28.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
42.2 vs 42.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.44
(0%)
2-Year Target
$16.43
(0%)
3-Year Target
$16.41
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42â42)
$16.45
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 42.2, Growth: 8.3%)
$20.93
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$9.85
(-40%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$8.37
(-49%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (42x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.35
Bull Case
$20.27
(+23%)
Analyst growth 11.4%, PE expands to 52.0
Base Case
$18.43
(+12%)
Market implied 11.4%, PE stable at 47.3
Bear Case
$11.25
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 42.2 to 42.3
Stabilization Target:
$16.50
(+0.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.2%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TFSL)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Feb 17, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish financial analyst on StockTwits highlights $TFSL's potential breakout from a double bottom pattern and its attractive dividend. A local news article reports Third Federal's partnership with schools and non-profits to offer free tax preparation assistance, emphasizing the significance of the Earned Income Tax Credit as a poverty relief and community economic development tool.
Key Retail Themes:
bullish sentiment towards $TFSL
significance of Third Federal's community partnership and the Earned Income Tax Credit
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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