What is the fair value of TLN stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TLN to be between $292.49 and $313.15. The current price is $320.77.

What is the analyst price target for TLN?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TLN is $455.65. This implies a potential upside of 42.0% from current levels.

Talen Energy (TLN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TLN - Talen Energy Corporation Common Stock

ELECTRIC SERVICES

$320.77

-2.32 (-0.72%) ▼

5d: +5.37%

30d: +6.2%

90d: -15.09%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 2, 2026 at $320.77 · last confirmed Oct 2, 2026

Strength: 7.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: TLN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$784.56

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$487.15

34.2% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TLN is currently trading at $320.77, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $292.49 to $313.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.4) compared to its historical average (13.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TLN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $285.65, while resistance sits at $331.02.

Market Sentiment: TLN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $455.65 (+42.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $292.49 - $313.15

Company Quality Score 47/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 42.9%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 42.0% below Wall St target ($455.65)
WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $292.49 - $313.15

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $285.65

Resistance Level $331.02

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.43

Wall Street Target $455.65 (+42.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 111.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 34.5%

Profit Margin -5.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -7.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 10.4 vs 13.1 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -7.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $297.03 (-7%)

2-Year Target $275.05 (-14%)

3-Year Target $254.70 (-21%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→13) $319.90 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.4, Growth: 38.1%) $1653.96 (+416%)

Base: (SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 38.1%) $845.62 (+164%)

Bear: (PE: 8.9, Growth: 38.1%) $718.78 (+124%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 13.1

Stabilization Target: $402.89 (+25.6%)

PE Expansion Potential: +25.6%

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Last updated: October 02, 2026 9:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 PM

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