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TLN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TLN - Talen Energy Corporation Common Stock

ELECTRIC SERVICES
$314.46
-2.53 (-0.80%) ▼
5d: -13.31%
30d: -17.09%
90d: -12.77%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Protect Your TLN Gains
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026 0d
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 21, 2026 at $314.46 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 7.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TLN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$771.80
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$479.23
34.4% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TLN is currently trading at $314.46, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $331.31 to $377.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.9) compared to its historical average (13.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TLN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $307.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $467.69 (+47.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $331.31 - $377.09
Company Quality Score 61/100 (BUY)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 47.5% below Wall St target ($467.69)
  • NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (48/100) — watch for confirmation
  • CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-13.3%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $331.31 - $377.09
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $307.92
Resistance Level $373.97
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.88
Wall Street Target $467.69 (+47.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 111.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 34.5%
Profit Margin -5.0%
Valuation Discount vs History -7.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical 10.9 vs 13.6 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -7.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $294.48 (-7%)
2-Year Target $273.58 (-14%)
3-Year Target $254.15 (-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 11→14) $317.77 (+0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 36.5%) $1488.79 (+370%)
Base: (SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 36.5%) $806.88 (+155%)
Bear: (PE: 9.2, Growth: 36.5%) $685.85 (+116%)
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 13.6
Stabilization Target: $396.33 (+25.0%)
PE Expansion Potential: +25.0%
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Last updated: August 23, 2026 10:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
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Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Advanced TLN Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TLN price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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