Vistra (VST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$133.45
+2.27 (+1.73%)
â˛
5d:
+10.94%
30d:
-17.81%
90d:
-8.85%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 06, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
48/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$131.59 â $157.45
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
12.3x
CHEAP
vs 15.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$202.48
+51.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$110.89 / $144.67
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VST is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 30, 2026 at $138.37 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$262.19
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$162.80
18.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VST is currently trading at $133.45, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $131.59 to $157.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.3) compared to its historical average (15.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 84.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $110.89, while resistance sits at $144.67.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $202.48 (+51.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $110.89, while resistance sits at $144.67.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $202.48 (+51.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$131.59 -
$157.45
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$131.59 -
$157.45
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$110.89
Resistance Level
$144.67
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding VST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.7% below Wall St target ($202.48)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.28
Wall Street Target
$202.48
(+51.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
84.6%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 15.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$124.24
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$115.67
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$107.69
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â15)
$133.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.5%)
$332.98
(+150%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 15.5%)
$205.84
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 15.5%)
$174.96
(+31%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.40
Bull Case
$211.97
(+59%)
Analyst growth 46.9%, PE expands to 19.5
Base Case
$192.70
(+44%)
Market implied 46.9%, PE stable at 17.7
Bear Case
$89.20
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 15.2
Stabilization Target:
$165.23
(+23.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (VST)
Bullish
8 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
7
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 12, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Vistra Corp. (VST) is a utility company that has underperformed the industry over the past month, with a return of -19.2% compared to the industry's gain of 6.3%. Zacks.com reports that VST is attracting investor attention due to changes in earnings estimate revisions. The consensus earnings estimate for the current quarter and fiscal year indicate a change of -11% and +65.2% respectively, with a negative revision of -8.4% over the last 30 days.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings estimate revisions
industry performance
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Net
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