Vistra (VST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VST - Vistra Corp.
$140.83
-15.31 (-9.81%)
âŧ
5d:
-8.65%
30d:
+2.07%
90d:
-13.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 06, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VST is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VST is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$211.70
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$131.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VST is currently trading at $140.83, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $138.25 to $155.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.6) compared to its historical average (15.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $139.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: VST scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.76 (+48.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $139.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: VST scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.76 (+48.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$138.25 -
$155.86
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-9.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 48.9% below Wall St target ($209.76)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$138.25 -
$155.86
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$139.10
Resistance Level
$164.25
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.64
Wall Street Target
$209.76
(+48.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.2%
Profit Margin
11.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 15.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$135.34
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$130.06
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$124.99
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14â15)
$141.12
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.8%)
$257.02
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 7.8%)
$176.52
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 7.8%)
$150.04
(+7%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.93
Bull Case
$299.05
(+112%)
Analyst growth 74.1%, PE expands to 29.0
Base Case
$271.87
(+93%)
Market implied 74.1%, PE stable at 26.3
Bear Case
$106.18
(-25%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 15.4
Stabilization Target:
$159.01
(+12.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 7:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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