Is VST stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, VST is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of VST stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for VST to be between $138.38 and $148.34. The current price is $148.38.

What is the analyst price target for VST?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for VST is $217.42. This implies a potential upside of 46.5% from current levels.

Vistra (VST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

VST - Vistra Corp.

ELECTRIC SERVICES

$148.38

1.33 (0.90%) ▲

5d: +2.88%

30d: +1.16%

90d: +1.37%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your VST Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 05, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $149.30 · last confirmed Sep 10, 2026

Strength: 8.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 7.9%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$215.39

Based on 5.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$133.74

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: VST is currently trading at $148.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $138.38 to $148.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, VST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $134.90, while resistance sits at $154.90.

Market Sentiment: VST scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $217.42 (+46.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $138.38 - $148.34

Company Quality Score 40/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 28.6%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 46.5% below Wall St target ($217.42)
WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $138.38 - $148.34

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $134.90

Resistance Level $154.90

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 14.34

Wall Street Target $217.42 (+46.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -5.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -6.2%

Profit Margin 11.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -2.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 14.3 vs 15.6 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -2.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $144.37 (-3%)

2-Year Target $140.48 (-5%)

3-Year Target $136.68 (-8%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 14→16) $148.68 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.9%) $262.34 (+77%)

Base: (SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 7.9%) $186.53 (+26%)

Bear: (PE: 12.2, Growth: 7.9%) $158.55 (+7%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 24.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.93

Bull Case $282.21 (+90%)

Analyst growth 74.5%, PE expands to 27.3

Base Case $256.56 (+73%)

Market implied 74.5%, PE stable at 24.8

Bear Case $99.99 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 15.6

Stabilization Target: $161.40 (+8.8%)

PE Expansion Potential: +8.8%

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Last updated: September 11, 2026 11:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM

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