Travel + Leisure (TNL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$80.14
-0.21 (-0.27%)
▼
5d:
+3.24%
30d:
+27.22%
90d:
+7.15%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (20%)
Quality Score
23/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$62.72 – $74.72
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.2x
FAIR
vs 8.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$87.23
+8.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$66.12 / $80.41
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TNL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.18
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TNL is currently trading at $80.14, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.72 to $74.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $80.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TNL scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $80.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TNL scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$62.72 -
$74.72
Company Quality Score
23/100
(STRONG SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
20.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$62.72 -
$74.72
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$66.12
Resistance Level
$80.41
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.2% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($87.23)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 23/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.20
Wall Street Target
$87.23
(+8.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.44
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$84.58
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$86.78
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$80.21
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.5%)
$246.90
(+207%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 12.5%)
$114.33
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 12.5%)
$97.18
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.71
Bull Case
$172.24
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.2
Base Case
$156.58
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.1
Bear Case
$53.24
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TNL)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 27, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Travel + Leisure Co. reported Q3 2026 results with a net revenue of $1.1 billion, net income of $108 million, and EPS of $1.73. The company raised the mid-point of full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings beat
revenue growth
shareholder returns
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 1:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TNL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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