Travel + Leisure (TNL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TNL - Travel + Leisure Co.
$67.14
-0.04 (-0.06%)
▼
5d:
+2.83%
30d:
+6.42%
90d:
-9.33%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TNL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TNL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$119.81
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.39
9.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TNL is currently trading at $67.14, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.27 to $65.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $67.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TNL scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.31 (+30.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $67.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TNL scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.31 (+30.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$62.27 -
$65.37
Company Quality Score
26/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.0% below Wall St target ($87.31)
- WARNING: Composite score 26/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.27 -
$65.37
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.69
Resistance Level
$67.77
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.65
Wall Street Target
$87.31
(+30.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.76
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$62.43
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$60.18
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$66.89
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.0%)
$272.55
(+306%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 16.0%)
$104.95
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 16.0%)
$89.21
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.66
Bull Case
$147.66
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 20.2
Base Case
$134.24
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.3
Bear Case
$45.64
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$74.67
(+11.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 1:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TNL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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