TNL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TNL - Travel + Leisure Co.
$74.70
-2.01 (-2.62%)
▼
5d:
+0.77%
30d:
+15.14%
90d:
+8.94%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TNL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TNL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.34
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TNL is currently trading at $74.70, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.62 to $74.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $73.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TNL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.08 (+16.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $73.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TNL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.08 (+16.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$65.62 -
$74.09
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($87.08)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$65.62 -
$74.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.30
Resistance Level
$73.22
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.81
Wall Street Target
$87.08
(+16.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Profit Margin
5.8%
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.70
(0%)
2-Year Target
$74.70
(0%)
3-Year Target
$74.70
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$74.61
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.1%)
$281.90
(+277%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 15.1%)
$114.04
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 15.1%)
$96.94
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.59
Bull Case
$168.76
(+126%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.5
Base Case
$153.42
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.4
Bear Case
$52.16
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TNL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erik D Hoag
BUY
1000 shares
2026-04-23
Michael Dean Brown
SELL
9443 shares
2026-04-17
Michael Dean Brown
SELL
1109 shares
2026-04-16
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