Travel + Leisure (TNL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TNL - Travel + Leisure Co.
$62.96
1.09 (1.76%)
â˛
5d:
+0.21%
30d:
-4.84%
90d:
-17.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
25d
Get Alerted When TNL Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TNL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TNL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$123.08
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.42
17.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TNL is currently trading at $62.96, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.92 to $69.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.1) compared to its historical average (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $60.98, while resistance sits at $65.40.
Market Sentiment: TNL scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.17 (+44.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $60.98, while resistance sits at $65.40.
Market Sentiment: TNL scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.17 (+44.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$62.92 -
$69.68
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.8% below Wall St target ($91.17)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.92 -
$69.68
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$60.98
Resistance Level
$65.40
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.14
Wall Street Target
$91.17
(+44.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 8.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.12
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$55.51
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$52.13
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7â9)
$62.81
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 16.5%)
$284.80
(+352%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 16.5%)
$99.64
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 16.5%)
$84.70
(+35%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.70
Bull Case
$136.11
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.4
Base Case
$123.74
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.7
Bear Case
$42.07
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$75.86
(+20.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 6:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 AM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TNL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erik D Hoag
BUY
1000 shares
2026-04-23
Michael Dean Brown
SELL
9443 shares
2026-04-17
Michael Dean Brown
SELL
1109 shares
2026-04-16
Top Rated Travel Services Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Travel Services by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
TCOM
Trip.com Group Ltd ADR |
STRONG BUY
33 analysts |
$58 | 52 HOLD |
|
BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc |
BUY
39 analysts |
$239 | 60 BUY |
|
CCL
Carnival Corporation |
STRONG BUY
28 analysts |
$34 | 48 HOLD |
|
RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises âĻ |
STRONG BUY
27 analysts |
$348 | 55 HOLD |
|
EXPE
Expedia Group Inc. |
HOLD
37 analysts |
$339 | 64 BUY |
