TOUR
Tuniu Corporation
Transportation Services
Tuniu (TOUR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$4.69
-0.03 (-0.64%)
▼
5d:
-0.11%
30d:
-5.25%
90d:
-4.29%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (83%)
Quality Score
55/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$4.71 – $4.96
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
2.4x
STRETCHED
vs 1.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$8.27
+76.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$4.65 / $4.81
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: TOUR trades at premium valuation expecting 6.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.81
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOUR is currently trading at $4.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.71 to $4.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 2.4) compared to its historical average (1.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOUR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.27 (+76.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOUR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.27 (+76.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.71 -
$4.96
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$4.71 -
$4.96
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$4.65
Resistance Level
$4.81
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (56/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 76.4% below Wall St target ($8.27)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.7% growth with 3.0% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (56/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.36
Wall Street Target
$8.27
(+76.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-94.5%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.7% premium
PE vs Historical
2.4 vs 1.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.00
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$5.34
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$5.70
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.59
(-2%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.9%)
$46.87
(+899%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.4, Growth: 5.9%)
$5.56
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.9, Growth: 5.9%)
$4.48
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$10.38
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 20.0
Base Case
$9.44
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.2
Bear Case
$3.21
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TOUR)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Nov 12, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on TOUR are bearish (sentiment score -0.32) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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