TOUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOUR - Tuniu Corporation
$4.95
-0.01 (-0.20%)
▼
5d:
-2.17%
30d:
+2.48%
90d:
-30.38%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 21, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TOUR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TOUR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.92
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.40
33.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOUR is currently trading at $4.95, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.81 to $5.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.5) compared to its historical average (1.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOUR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TOUR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.29 (+249.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOUR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TOUR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.29 (+249.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.81 -
$5.15
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 249.3% below Wall St target ($17.29)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.81 -
$5.15
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.95
Resistance Level
$5.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.46
Wall Street Target
$17.29
(+249.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.5%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.5 vs 1.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.60
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$4.28
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$3.98
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$4.92
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 41.7%)
$200.39
(+3948%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.5, Growth: 41.7%)
$14.07
(+184%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 41.7%)
$11.96
(+142%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.44
Bull Case
$10.91
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$9.92
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$3.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.5 to 1.8
Stabilization Target:
$6.12
(+23.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 11:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Yu Dunde
BUY
200 shares
2026-03-24
Anqiang Chen
BUY
280 shares
2026-03-23
Yu Dunde
BUY
2700 shares
2026-03-23
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