Tuniu (TOUR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOUR - Tuniu Corporation
$5.11
0.00 (0.00%)
â˛
5d:
-1.73%
30d:
+0.2%
90d:
+6.24%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 25, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TOUR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 12.6% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TOUR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 12.6% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.56
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOUR is currently trading at $5.11, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.87 to $5.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 2.6) compared to its historical average (1.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 12.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOUR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.79, while resistance sits at $5.30.
Market Sentiment: TOUR scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.24 (+61.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOUR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.79, while resistance sits at $5.30.
Market Sentiment: TOUR scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.24 (+61.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$4.87 -
$5.14
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 61.2% below Wall St target ($8.24)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 12.6% growth with 3.0% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.87 -
$5.14
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.80
Resistance Level
$5.30
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.57
Wall Street Target
$8.24
(+61.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-94.5%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+12.6% premium
PE vs Historical
2.6 vs 1.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+12.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.75
(+13%)
2-Year Target
$6.48
(+27%)
3-Year Target
$7.30
(+43%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3â2)
PE COMPRESSION
$5.11
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 5.9%)
$47.60
(+832%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.6, Growth: 5.9%)
$6.06
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.8, Growth: 5.9%)
$4.25
(-17%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.44
Bull Case
$11.24
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$10.22
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$3.47
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 8:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Yu Dunde
BUY
200 shares
2026-03-24
Anqiang Chen
BUY
280 shares
2026-03-23
Yu Dunde
BUY
2700 shares
2026-03-23
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