Tuniu (TOUR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOUR - Tuniu Corporation
$4.79
-0.04 (-0.83%)
▼
5d:
-4.1%
30d:
-5.33%
90d:
-5.34%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Dec 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TOUR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TOUR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.81
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOUR is currently trading at $4.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.89 to $5.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 2.4) compared to its historical average (1.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOUR is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $4.62, while resistance sits at $5.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.27 (+72.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOUR is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $4.62, while resistance sits at $5.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.27 (+72.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.89 -
$5.12
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 72.7% below Wall St target ($8.27)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.0% growth with 3.0% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.89 -
$5.12
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.62
Resistance Level
$5.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.41
Wall Street Target
$8.27
(+72.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-94.5%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.0% premium
PE vs Historical
2.4 vs 1.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.17
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$5.59
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$6.03
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.76
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.9%)
$46.87
(+879%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.4, Growth: 5.9%)
$5.68
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.9, Growth: 5.9%)
$4.48
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$10.63
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 20.4
Base Case
$9.66
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.6
Bear Case
$3.28
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 7:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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