TPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPC - Tutor Perini Corporation
$74.74
57.31 (328.80%)
▲
5d:
+315.22%
30d:
+320.6%
90d:
+302.26%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.65
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPC is currently trading at $74.74, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.27 to $72.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.4) compared to its historical average (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 328.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.25 (+51.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 328.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.25 (+51.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.27 -
$72.38
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
31th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 31th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+328.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 51.5% below Wall St target ($113.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.9% growth with 11.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.27 -
$72.38
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.04
(9.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.76
Resistance Level
$76.23
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.41
Wall Street Target
$113.25
(+51.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.4%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.9% premium
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 9.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.39
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$88.64
(+19%)
3-Year Target
$96.52
(+29%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$74.67
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.8%)
$219.96
(+194%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 18.8%)
$125.32
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 18.8%)
$96.95
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 14.01 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.34
Bull Case
$90.25
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$74.74
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$57.18
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 1:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Peter Arkley
BUY
8117 shares
2026-03-06
Peter Arkley
BUY
10999 shares
2026-03-05
Gary G Smalley
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-04
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