TPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPC - Tutor Perini Corporation
$17.15
-0.07 (-0.41%)
▼
5d:
+0.18%
30d:
-3.98%
90d:
-81.54%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TPC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TPC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$97.62
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.61
71.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPC is currently trading at $17.15, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.67 to $61.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.8) compared to its historical average (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 32.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TPC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.25 (+560.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TPC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.25 (+560.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$6.67 -
$61.67
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 560.3% below Wall St target ($113.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.67 -
$61.67
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.06
Resistance Level
$81.06
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.82
Wall Street Target
$113.25
(+560.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.4%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-32.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.8 vs 9.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-32.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.44
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.89
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$12.50
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→9)
$41.26
(+141%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 19.3%)
$214.23
(+1149%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.8, Growth: 19.3%)
$29.12
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.4, Growth: 19.3%)
$24.75
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 14.01 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.22
Bull Case
$20.71
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$17.15
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$13.12
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.8 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$56.60
(+230.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+230.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:49 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Peter Arkley
BUY
8117 shares
2026-03-06
Peter Arkley
BUY
10999 shares
2026-03-05
Gary G Smalley
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-04
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