TPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPC - Tutor Perini Corporation
$81.00
63.24 (356.08%)
▲
5d:
+5.81%
30d:
+340.46%
90d:
+11.82%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: TPC is 14.1% above its trading range ($70.96). Market expects 10.9% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: TPC is 14.1% above its trading range ($70.96). Market expects 10.9% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$101.74
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.17
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPC is currently trading at $81.00, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.99 to $70.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 356.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.25 (+39.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 356.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.25 (+39.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$13.99 -
$70.96
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
6th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+14.1% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 6th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+356.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 39.8% below Wall St target ($113.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 10.9% growth with 11.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to 14.1% overvaluation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.99 -
$70.96
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.56
(6.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.76
Resistance Level
$76.23
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.45
Wall Street Target
$113.25
(+39.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.4%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.9% premium
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 9.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$89.83
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$99.62
(+23%)
3-Year Target
$110.48
(+36%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$81.33
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.8%)
$219.96
(+172%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 18.8%)
$135.82
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 18.8%)
$99.98
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 14.01 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.78
Bull Case
$97.81
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$81.00
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$61.97
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 8:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Peter Arkley
BUY
8117 shares
2026-03-06
Peter Arkley
BUY
10999 shares
2026-03-05
Gary G Smalley
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-04
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