Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$274.63
-3.65 (-1.31%)
▼
5d:
-17.28%
30d:
-24.82%
90d:
-19.88%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (92%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$303.36 – $360.08
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
26.9x
FAIR
vs 29.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$443.00
+61.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$265.31 / $338.01
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TPL is down 17.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 5, 2026 at $276.04 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$360.76
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$224.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPL is currently trading at $274.63, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $303.36 to $360.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.9) is in line with its historical norms (29.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 37.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $265.31, while resistance sits at $338.01.
Market Sentiment: TPL scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $443.00 (+61.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $265.31, while resistance sits at $338.01.
Market Sentiment: TPL scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $443.00 (+61.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$303.36 -
$360.08
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$303.36 -
$360.08
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$16.91
(6.2%)
Support Level
$265.31
Resistance Level
$338.01
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding TPL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 61.3% below Wall St target ($443.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.91
Wall Street Target
$443.00
(+61.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.6%
Profit Margin
60.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.9 vs 29.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$266.39
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$258.40
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$250.65
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→30)
$274.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.9, Growth: 10.4%)
$369.61
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.4%)
$272.75
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 10.4%)
$231.84
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.51
Bull Case
$367.06
(+34%)
Analyst growth 19.9%, PE expands to 36.0
Base Case
$333.69
(+22%)
Market implied 19.9%, PE stable at 32.7
Bear Case
$189.23
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.9 to 29.5
Stabilization Target:
$301.03
(+9.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TPL)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Texas Pacific Land (TPL) reported Q3 2026 results with revenue up 34.6% YoY to $273.4 million and GAAP EPS of $2.42, surpassing analysts' estimates. The CEO highlighted record revenue, net income, and free cash flow, driven by robust development activity, oil prices, and gas realizations.
Key Retail Themes:
Strong Q3 results
Robust development activity
Elevated oil prices
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
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Sells
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