TPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPL - Texas Pacific Land Corporation
$374.94
13.83 (3.83%)
▲
5d:
+3.35%
30d:
-5.55%
90d:
-28.97%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TPL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TPL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$353.20
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$219.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPL is currently trading at $374.94, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $366.69 to $400.80. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 35.8) compared to its historical average (27.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPL is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $361.20, while resistance sits at $413.69. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $445.00 (+23.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPL is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $361.20, while resistance sits at $413.69. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $445.00 (+23.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$366.69 -
$400.80
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
5th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 5th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.2% below Wall St target ($445.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 8.9% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$366.69 -
$400.80
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$22.27
(5.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$361.20
Resistance Level
$413.69
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.81
Wall Street Target
$445.00
(+23.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.3%
Profit Margin
60.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.9% premium
PE vs Historical
35.8 vs 27.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$393.25
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$428.25
(+19%)
3-Year Target
$466.36
(+29%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36→28)
PE COMPRESSION
$360.70
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.8, Growth: 10.0%)
$480.29
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.0%)
$292.08
(-19%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 10.0%)
$248.27
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (36x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.28
Bull Case
$541.01
(+50%)
Analyst growth 38.5%, PE expands to 53.7
Base Case
$491.83
(+36%)
Market implied 38.5%, PE stable at 48.8
Bear Case
$241.47
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Donna E Epps
BUY
895 shares
2026-02-25
Stephanie Buffington
SELL
1608 shares
2026-02-24
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