Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPL - Texas Pacific Land Corporation
$336.46
10.63 (3.26%)
▲
5d:
-0.53%
30d:
-9.05%
90d:
-17.37%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TPL is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TPL is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$370.06
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$229.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPL is currently trading at $336.46, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $342.68 to $373.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 32.6) compared to its historical average (29.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $324.80, while resistance sits at $369.46. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPL scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $443.00 (+31.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $324.80, while resistance sits at $369.46. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPL scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $443.00 (+31.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$342.68 -
$373.96
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
49th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
91.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 49th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 31.7% below Wall St target ($443.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 21% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$342.68 -
$373.96
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$24.04
(7.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$324.80
Resistance Level
$369.46
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.59
Wall Street Target
$443.00
(+31.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.7%
Profit Margin
60.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.9% premium
PE vs Historical
32.6 vs 29.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$349.58
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$363.22
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$377.38
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→29)
PE COMPRESSION
$335.82
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.6, Growth: 11.0%)
$459.97
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 11.0%)
$287.93
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 11.0%)
$244.74
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.79
Bull Case
$475.02
(+41%)
Analyst growth 32.5%, PE expands to 46.0
Base Case
$431.84
(+28%)
Market implied 32.5%, PE stable at 41.8
Bear Case
$221.56
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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