TREX
Trex Company, Inc.
LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS (NO FURNITURE)
Trex (TREX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$53.30
-0.98 (-1.81%)
▼
5d:
-4.84%
30d:
+20.13%
90d:
+7.39%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
37/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$45.05 – $53.55
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
26.1x
FAIR
vs 23.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$63.05
+16.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$49.52 / $60.21
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TREX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$67.88
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TREX is currently trading at $53.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.05 to $53.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 26.1) compared to its historical average (23.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $49.52, while resistance sits at $60.21.
Market Sentiment: TREX scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.05 (+16.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $49.52, while resistance sits at $60.21.
Market Sentiment: TREX scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.05 (+16.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$45.05 -
$53.55
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$45.05 -
$53.55
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$49.52
Resistance Level
$60.21
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($63.05)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.13
Wall Street Target
$63.05
(+16.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Profit Margin
13.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
26.1 vs 23.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.61
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$59.05
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$61.59
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$54.21
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.1, Growth: 10.6%)
$73.44
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.6%)
$55.81
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 10.6%)
$47.44
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.60
Bull Case
$77.76
(+43%)
Analyst growth 29.8%, PE expands to 37.4
Base Case
$70.69
(+30%)
Market implied 29.8%, PE stable at 34.0
Bear Case
$37.03
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TREX)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
May 8, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Trex Company announced the expansion of its Trex Enhance composite decking line with two new colors, Pebble Beach and Golden Hour, featuring heat-mitigating technology.
Key Retail Themes:
new product releases
competitive landscape
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TREX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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