Trex (TREX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TREX - Trex Company, Inc.
$44.95
1.28 (2.93%)
▲
5d:
+2.88%
30d:
-9.25%
90d:
-3.0%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
Get Alerted When TREX Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TREX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TREX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$71.18
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.20
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TREX is currently trading at $44.95, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.89 to $48.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.3) is in line with its historical norms (23.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $42.73, while resistance sits at $47.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.67 (+21.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $42.73, while resistance sits at $47.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.67 (+21.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$44.89 -
$48.88
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.6% below Wall St target ($54.67)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (44/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.89 -
$48.88
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.73
Resistance Level
$47.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.29
Wall Street Target
$54.67
(+21.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.2%
Profit Margin
14.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 23.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.50
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$44.06
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$43.61
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$45.01
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.0%)
$66.66
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 14.0%)
$60.32
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 14.0%)
$51.27
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.63
Bull Case
$59.43
(+32%)
Analyst growth 23.7%, PE expands to 29.5
Base Case
$54.03
(+20%)
Market implied 23.7%, PE stable at 26.8
Bear Case
$29.70
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 23.0
Stabilization Target:
$46.38
(+3.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:51 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TREX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Building Products & Equipment Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Building Products & Equipment by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
CARR
Carrier Global Corp |
BUY
25 analysts |
$78 | 47 HOLD |
|
BLDR
Builders FirstSource Inc |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$81 | 45 HOLD |
|
JCI
Johnson Controls Interna… |
BUY
22 analysts |
$163 | 63 BUY |
|
TT
Trane Technologies plc |
BUY
25 analysts |
$527 | 46 HOLD |
|
OC
Owens Corning Inc |
BUY
18 analysts |
$177 | 58 HOLD |
