Trex (TREX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TREX - Trex Company, Inc.
$43.56
0.06 (0.14%)
▲
5d:
-2.75%
30d:
-0.39%
90d:
-9.81%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TREX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TREX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$71.06
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.13
1.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TREX is currently trading at $43.56, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.17 to $45.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.6) is in line with its historical norms (22.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $42.09, while resistance sits at $45.13.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.67 (+25.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $42.09, while resistance sits at $45.13.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.67 (+25.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$43.17 -
$45.71
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.5% below Wall St target ($54.67)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (46/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.17 -
$45.71
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.10
Resistance Level
$45.13
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.59
Wall Street Target
$54.67
(+25.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.2%
Profit Margin
14.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 22.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.73
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$41.92
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$41.12
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$43.62
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.6, Growth: 14.1%)
$64.64
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 14.1%)
$61.08
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 14.1%)
$51.91
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.70
Bull Case
$56.79
(+30%)
Analyst growth 18.7%, PE expands to 28.2
Base Case
$51.63
(+19%)
Market implied 18.7%, PE stable at 25.6
Bear Case
$29.58
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.6 to 22.9
Stabilization Target:
$46.21
(+6.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TREX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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