Trex (TREX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TREX - Trex Company, Inc.
$51.07
2.24 (4.59%)
▲
5d:
+10.52%
30d:
+17.08%
90d:
+17.59%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TREX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TREX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$71.75
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TREX is currently trading at $51.07, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.84 to $46.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.2) compared to its historical average (22.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $51.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: TREX scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $51.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: TREX scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$42.84 -
$46.63
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.5% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($55.53)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.4% growth with 7.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.84 -
$46.63
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.69
Resistance Level
$51.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.24
Wall Street Target
$55.53
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.2%
Profit Margin
14.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
25.2 vs 22.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.81
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$54.60
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$56.46
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$51.23
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.2, Growth: 14.4%)
$76.43
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.4%)
$60.15
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 14.4%)
$51.12
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.70
Bull Case
$63.93
(+25%)
Analyst growth 19.0%, PE expands to 31.6
Base Case
$58.12
(+14%)
Market implied 19.0%, PE stable at 28.7
Bear Case
$33.20
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 7:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TREX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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