TREX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TREX - Trex Company, Inc.
$40.56
-1.03 (-2.48%)
▼
5d:
-2.34%
30d:
+10.7%
90d:
+0.87%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TREX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TREX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.27
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TREX is currently trading at $40.56, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.89 to $41.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.9) is in line with its historical norms (22.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.69, while resistance sits at $43.16.
Market Sentiment: TREX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.21 (+18.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.69, while resistance sits at $43.16.
Market Sentiment: TREX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.21 (+18.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$37.89 -
$41.17
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($48.21)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.89 -
$41.17
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.69
Resistance Level
$43.16
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.88
Wall Street Target
$48.21
(+18.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.9 vs 22.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.15
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$39.75
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$39.36
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$40.48
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 10.6%)
$54.89
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 10.6%)
$54.81
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 10.6%)
$46.58
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.80
Bull Case
$47.06
(+11%)
Analyst growth 3.0%, PE expands to 25.4
Base Case
$42.78
(+1%)
Market implied 3.0%, PE stable at 23.1
Bear Case
$28.24
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.9 to 22.5
Stabilization Target:
$41.72
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 6:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TREX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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