TREX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TREX - Trex Company, Inc.
$46.83
-0.47 (-0.99%)
âŧ
5d:
-5.64%
30d:
+10.5%
90d:
+20.48%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TREX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TREX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$71.18
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.20
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TREX is currently trading at $46.83, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.33 to $48.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.2) is in line with its historical norms (23.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TREX scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.67 (+16.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TREX scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.67 (+16.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$43.33 -
$48.59
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
43.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($54.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.3% growth with 7.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.33 -
$48.59
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.04
Resistance Level
$50.96
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.22
Wall Street Target
$54.67
(+16.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.2%
Profit Margin
14.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
23.2 vs 23.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.97
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$47.11
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$47.25
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23â23)
PE COMPRESSION
$46.80
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.2, Growth: 14.0%)
$69.44
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 14.0%)
$60.02
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 14.0%)
$51.02
(+9%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.66
Bull Case
$63.21
(+35%)
Analyst growth 21.5%, PE expands to 31.3
Base Case
$57.46
(+23%)
Market implied 21.5%, PE stable at 28.5
Bear Case
$32.16
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TREX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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