TREX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TREX - Trex Company, Inc.
$45.90
-1.26 (-2.67%)
▼
5d:
-4.97%
30d:
+7.27%
90d:
+17.54%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TREX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TREX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.36
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TREX is currently trading at $45.90, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.63 to $49.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.7) is in line with its historical norms (22.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$43.63 -
$49.08
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($48.89)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.63 -
$49.08
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.19
Resistance Level
$44.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.74
Wall Street Target
$48.89
(+6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
24.7 vs 22.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.09
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$48.32
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$49.57
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$45.89
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.7, Growth: 10.6%)
$62.06
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.6%)
$54.64
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 10.6%)
$46.44
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.80
Bull Case
$53.47
(+17%)
Analyst growth 3.1%, PE expands to 28.8
Base Case
$48.61
(+6%)
Market implied 3.1%, PE stable at 26.2
Bear Case
$32.07
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 7:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TREX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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