Trinity Capital (TRIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRIN - Trinity Capital Inc. Common Stock
$16.36
0.18 (1.11%)
▲
5d:
-1.68%
30d:
-6.78%
90d:
-5.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TRIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TRIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.96
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRIN is currently trading at $16.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.75 to $17.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.8) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRIN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $15.74, while resistance sits at $17.30.
Market Sentiment: TRIN scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRIN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $15.74, while resistance sits at $17.30.
Market Sentiment: TRIN scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.75 -
$17.86
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (67/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($18.50)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 67/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.75 -
$17.86
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.75
Resistance Level
$17.30
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.77
Wall Street Target
$18.50
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.0%
Profit Margin
45.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.29
(0%)
2-Year Target
$16.23
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$16.16
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$16.44
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 1.3%)
$43.47
(+166%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 1.3%)
$17.00
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 1.3%)
$14.45
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.76
Bull Case
$21.30
(+30%)
Analyst growth 19.7%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$19.37
(+18%)
Market implied 19.7%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$11.00
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$16.64
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 1:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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