Ternium (TX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TX - Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares
$57.90
0.29 (0.50%)
▲
5d:
-0.14%
30d:
+5.48%
90d:
+19.11%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$89.87
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$55.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TX is currently trading at $57.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.73 to $57.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 59.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $58.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TX scores 16/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $58.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TX scores 16/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$53.73 -
$57.00
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (16/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($58.77)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$53.73 -
$57.00
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.93
Resistance Level
$58.73
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.57
Wall Street Target
$58.77
(+1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
59.5%
Profit Margin
4.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.97
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$56.06
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$55.17
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$57.58
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.6%)
$220.47
(+281%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 12.6%)
$82.73
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 12.6%)
$70.32
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.57
Bull Case
$126.74
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$115.22
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$39.17
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$60.44
(+4.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 1:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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