TX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TX - Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares
$44.78
-0.05 (-0.11%)
▼
5d:
+4.75%
30d:
-7.88%
90d:
+4.04%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TX appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.4% annual earnings decline despite 218% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TX appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.4% annual earnings decline despite 218% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$88.27
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.81
18.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TX is currently trading at $44.78, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.06 to $47.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.1) compared to its historical average (8.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 218.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.27 (+19.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.27 (+19.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$43.06 -
$47.99
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($53.27)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.06 -
$47.99
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.16
Resistance Level
$51.73
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.06
Wall Street Target
$53.27
(+19.0%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
218.1%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 8.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.81
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$40.93
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$39.13
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$44.91
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.1%)
$233.27
(+421%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 19.1%)
$75.58
(+69%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 19.1%)
$64.25
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.00
Bull Case
$97.46
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 16.2
Base Case
$88.60
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.8
Bear Case
$30.12
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 8.1
Stabilization Target:
$51.40
(+14.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:43 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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