Ternium (TX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TX - Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares
$55.96
0.60 (1.08%)
â˛
5d:
-2.0%
30d:
+0.77%
90d:
+17.22%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$95.88
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.53
6.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TX is currently trading at $55.96, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.34 to $58.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 59.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $55.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TX scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $55.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TX scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$55.34 -
$58.27
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($61.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$55.34 -
$58.27
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.13
Resistance Level
$60.21
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.32
Wall Street Target
$61.50
(+9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
59.5%
Profit Margin
4.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.62
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$53.31
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$52.03
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7â8)
$56.18
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.5%)
$233.99
(+318%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 15.5%)
$86.20
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 15.5%)
$73.27
(+31%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.38
Bull Case
$121.79
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$110.72
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$37.64
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$60.42
(+8.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 1:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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