TX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TX - Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares
$45.36
-1.27 (-2.72%)
▼
5d:
-9.13%
30d:
+1.2%
90d:
+18.37%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$77.35
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.03
5.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TX is currently trading at $45.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.43 to $49.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 218.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.12 (+17.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.12 (+17.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$45.43 -
$49.92
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($53.12)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.1% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.43 -
$49.92
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.16
Resistance Level
$51.73
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.98
Wall Street Target
$53.12
(+17.1%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
218.1%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 8.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.04
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$44.73
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$44.41
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$45.07
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.1%)
$203.78
(+349%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 18.1%)
$74.68
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 18.1%)
$63.48
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.00
Bull Case
$97.16
(+114%)
Analyst growth 89.4%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$88.33
(+95%)
Market implied 89.4%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$31.71
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 8.1
Stabilization Target:
$46.03
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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