TX
Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares
Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens)
Ternium (TX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$50.45
-1.09 (-2.11%)
▼
5d:
+3.72%
30d:
-13.83%
90d:
-6.24%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
60/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$51.64 – $58.04
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
6.3x
CHEAP
vs 7.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$63.81
+26.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$47.73 / $53.69
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$105.21
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.33
22.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TX is currently trading at $50.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.64 to $58.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.3) compared to its historical average (7.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1256.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.73, while resistance sits at $53.69.
Market Sentiment: TX scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.81 (+26.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.73, while resistance sits at $53.69.
Market Sentiment: TX scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.81 (+26.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$51.64 -
$58.04
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$51.64 -
$58.04
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$47.73
Resistance Level
$53.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.5% below Wall St target ($63.81)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 63/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.31
Wall Street Target
$63.81
(+26.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1256.1%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 7.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.02
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$43.82
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$40.84
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$50.47
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 18.3%)
$262.66
(+421%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 18.3%)
$83.49
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 18.3%)
$70.96
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.00
Bull Case
$90.62
(+80%)
Analyst growth 59.8%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$82.38
(+63%)
Market implied 59.8%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$35.05
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 7.8
Stabilization Target:
$62.34
(+23.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TX)
Bullish
6 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
6
Bullish
Last Tracked
Nov 6, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on TX are bullish (sentiment score +0.42) across 6 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 1:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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