United Bancorp Inc/OH (UBCP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UBCP - United Bancorp Inc/OH
$14.79
0.49 (3.43%)
▲
5d:
-0.17%
30d:
-5.07%
90d:
-9.04%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UBCP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UBCP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.95
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.73
11.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UBCP is currently trading at $14.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.00 to $15.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $14.29, while resistance sits at $16.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+35.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $14.29, while resistance sits at $16.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+35.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$15.00 -
$15.92
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 35.2% below Wall St target ($20.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.00 -
$15.92
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.29
Resistance Level
$16.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.13
Wall Street Target
$20.00
(+35.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Profit Margin
24.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.58
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$14.38
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$14.18
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$14.75
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 20.0%)
$57.11
(+286%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 20.0%)
$25.56
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 20.0%)
$21.72
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.33
Bull Case
$19.16
(+30%)
Analyst growth 21.8%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$17.42
(+18%)
Market implied 21.8%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case
$9.72
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$15.39
(+4.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UBCP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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