United Bancorp Inc/OH (UBCP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UBCP - United Bancorp Inc/OH
$13.60
-0.13 (-0.95%)
▼
5d:
+0.59%
30d:
-11.4%
90d:
-11.86%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UBCP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UBCP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.95
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.73
18.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UBCP is currently trading at $13.60, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.84 to $15.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UBCP scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+47.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UBCP scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+47.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.84 -
$15.42
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (67/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.1% below Wall St target ($20.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 67/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.84 -
$15.42
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.31
Resistance Level
$14.89
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.40
Wall Street Target
$20.00
(+47.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Profit Margin
24.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.07
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$12.56
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$12.07
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$13.66
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 20.0%)
$55.60
(+309%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 20.0%)
$23.50
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 20.0%)
$19.98
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.38
Bull Case
$17.73
(+30%)
Analyst growth 17.4%, PE expands to 10.9
Base Case
$16.12
(+19%)
Market implied 17.4%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$9.34
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$15.39
(+13.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UBCP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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