UBCP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UBCP - United Bancorp Inc/OH
$15.25
0.14 (0.96%)
▲
5d:
-3.88%
30d:
-3.97%
90d:
-6.5%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UBCP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UBCP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.95
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.73
8.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UBCP is currently trading at $15.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.27 to $16.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $14.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UBCP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+31.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $14.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UBCP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+31.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$15.27 -
$16.10
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.1% below Wall St target ($20.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.27 -
$16.10
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.96
Resistance Level
$15.88
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.41
Wall Street Target
$20.00
(+31.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Profit Margin
24.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.20
(0%)
2-Year Target
$15.16
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$15.11
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$15.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 20.0%)
$58.03
(+281%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 20.0%)
$26.35
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 20.0%)
$22.40
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.38
Bull Case
$19.51
(+28%)
Analyst growth 17.4%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$17.73
(+16%)
Market implied 17.4%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$10.27
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$15.39
(+0.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UBCP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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