United Bancorp Inc/OH (UBCP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UBCP - United Bancorp Inc/OH
$15.72
0.06 (0.35%)
â˛
5d:
-0.29%
30d:
-2.66%
90d:
-1.13%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UBCP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UBCP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.95
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.73
6.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UBCP is currently trading at $15.72, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.45 to $15.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $15.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+27.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $15.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+27.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.45 -
$15.92
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.2% below Wall St target ($20.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.45 -
$15.92
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.42
Resistance Level
$15.99
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.70
Wall Street Target
$20.00
(+27.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Profit Margin
24.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.81
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$15.91
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$16.00
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â10)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.67
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 20.0%)
$56.46
(+259%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 20.0%)
$27.16
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 20.0%)
$23.09
(+47%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.38
Bull Case
$20.23
(+29%)
Analyst growth 17.4%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$18.39
(+17%)
Market implied 17.4%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$10.65
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UBCP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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