UBCP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UBCP - United Bancorp Inc/OH
$15.31
-0.54 (-3.41%)
▼
5d:
-5.96%
30d:
-6.3%
90d:
-2.05%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UBCP is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UBCP is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.77
Based on 11.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.00
4.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UBCP is currently trading at $15.31, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.56 to $16.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.70, while resistance sits at $16.34. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+30.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.70, while resistance sits at $16.34. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+30.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$15.56 -
$16.23
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.6% below Wall St target ($20.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.0% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.56 -
$16.23
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.70
Resistance Level
$16.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.57
Wall Street Target
$20.00
(+30.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Profit Margin
24.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.36
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$15.40
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$15.45
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.34
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.5%)
$58.01
(+279%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 18.5%)
$25.49
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 18.5%)
$21.66
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.35
Bull Case
$20.22
(+28%)
Analyst growth 18.5%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$18.38
(+16%)
Market implied 18.5%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$10.55
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UBCP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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