United Bancorp Inc/OH (UBCP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$14.29
+0.24 (+1.71%)
â˛
5d:
-0.35%
30d:
-2.46%
90d:
-8.69%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (65%)
Quality Score
45/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$13.71 â $14.46
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.8x
FAIR
vs 9.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$20.00
+40.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$13.90 / $14.73
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UBCP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.67
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.56
13.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UBCP is currently trading at $14.29, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.71 to $14.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+40.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+40.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$13.71 -
$14.46
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$13.71 -
$14.46
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$13.90
Resistance Level
$14.73
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.0% below Wall St target ($20.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.82
Wall Street Target
$20.00
(+40.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Profit Margin
24.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 9.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.98
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$13.67
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$13.37
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â9)
$14.24
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 20.0%)
$55.60
(+289%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 20.0%)
$24.69
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 20.0%)
$20.99
(+47%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.29
Bull Case
$19.41
(+36%)
Analyst growth 25.6%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$17.64
(+24%)
Market implied 25.6%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$9.55
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 9.4
Stabilization Target:
$15.23
(+6.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (UBCP)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
May 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
CEO of $UBCP, Everson Scott A, purchased additional 2,213 shares, reinforcing bullish sentiment.
Key Retail Themes:
CEO buy
Bullish sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UBCP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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