UGI (UGI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGI - UGI Corporation
$36.36
0.69 (1.93%)
▲
5d:
-0.03%
30d:
-5.41%
90d:
+3.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 19, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UGI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UGI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.58
Based on 9.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGI is currently trading at $36.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.73 to $38.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.21, while resistance sits at $38.05.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.25 (+18.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.21, while resistance sits at $38.05.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.25 (+18.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$36.73 -
$38.42
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.73 -
$38.42
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.21
Resistance Level
$38.05
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.29
Wall Street Target
$43.25
(+18.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.61
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$36.87
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$37.13
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$36.17
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 15.0%)
$99.90
(+175%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 15.0%)
$55.30
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 15.0%)
$47.00
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.01
Bull Case
$41.97
(+15%)
Analyst growth 7.0%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$38.16
(+5%)
Market implied 7.0%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$24.26
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 5:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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