Univest Financial (UVSP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVSP - Univest Financial Corporation Common Stock
$42.28
0.55 (1.32%)
▲
5d:
+3.0%
30d:
+2.1%
90d:
-4.13%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UVSP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UVSP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.99
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVSP is currently trading at $42.28, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.95 to $42.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVSP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVSP scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVSP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVSP scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$40.95 -
$42.27
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.95 -
$42.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.90
Resistance Level
$42.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.68
Wall Street Target
$45.50
(+7.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.8%
Profit Margin
29.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.62
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$42.96
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$43.30
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$42.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 3.9%)
$88.30
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 3.9%)
$47.47
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 3.9%)
$40.35
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.45
Bull Case
$52.69
(+25%)
Analyst growth 14.8%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$47.90
(+13%)
Market implied 14.8%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$28.38
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 7:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVSP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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