Univest Financial (UVSP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVSP - Univest Financial Corporation Common Stock
$41.81
0.59 (1.43%)
▲
5d:
-0.83%
30d:
+0.43%
90d:
-5.43%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UVSP is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UVSP is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.78
Based on 3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVSP is currently trading at $41.81, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.40 to $42.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVSP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVSP scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVSP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVSP scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$41.40 -
$42.46
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 15% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.40 -
$42.46
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.13
Resistance Level
$42.64
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.64
Wall Street Target
$45.50
(+8.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.8%
Profit Margin
29.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.06
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$42.31
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$42.57
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.61
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 3.2%)
$88.22
(+111%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 3.2%)
$46.01
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 3.2%)
$39.10
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.46
Bull Case
$51.50
(+23%)
Analyst growth 13.6%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$46.82
(+12%)
Market implied 13.6%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$28.03
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVSP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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