VALN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VALN - Valneva SE American Depositary Shares
$5.07
0.10 (2.01%)
▲
5d:
+2.22%
30d:
-2.97%
90d:
-5.23%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VALN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VALN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.45
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.25
3.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VALN is currently trading at $5.07, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.93 to $5.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.8) compared to its historical average (5.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.20 (+145.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.20 (+145.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.93 -
$5.25
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 145.5% below Wall St target ($12.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.93 -
$5.25
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.75
Resistance Level
$5.15
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.78
Wall Street Target
$12.20
(+145.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-37.2%
Profit Margin
-88.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.8 vs 5.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.65
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$4.34
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$4.06
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$4.93
(-1%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.8 to 5.8
Stabilization Target:
$6.03
(+21.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VALN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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