VALN
Valneva SE American Depositary Shares
Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)
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Valneva (VALN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$5.84
-0.08 (-1.35%)
▼
5d:
+3.55%
30d:
+3.18%
90d:
-18.09%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (51%)
Quality Score
50/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$5.47 – $5.83
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
5.0x
FAIR
vs 5.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$12.28
+107.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$5.31 / $6.04
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VALN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.17
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VALN is currently trading at $5.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.47 to $5.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.0) is in line with its historical norms (5.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.31, while resistance sits at $6.04.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.28 (+107.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.31, while resistance sits at $6.04.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.28 (+107.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$5.47 -
$5.83
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$5.47 -
$5.83
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$5.31
Resistance Level
$6.04
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 107.3% below Wall St target ($12.28)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.97
Wall Street Target
$12.28
(+107.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-27.7%
Profit Margin
-110.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.0 vs 5.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.71
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$5.51
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$5.32
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$5.88
(-1%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.0 to 5.5
Stabilization Target:
$6.54
(+10.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.6%
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VALN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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