VALN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VALN - Valneva SE American Depositary Shares
$5.26
0.21 (4.16%)
▲
5d:
-2.59%
30d:
+0.0%
90d:
-14.89%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VALN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VALN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.89
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.52
4.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VALN is currently trading at $5.26, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.19 to $5.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.1) compared to its historical average (6.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.05, while resistance sits at $5.54. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: VALN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.20 (+131.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.05, while resistance sits at $5.54. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: VALN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.20 (+131.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$5.19 -
$5.39
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 131.9% below Wall St target ($12.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.19 -
$5.39
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.05
Resistance Level
$5.54
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.06
Wall Street Target
$12.20
(+131.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-37.2%
Profit Margin
-88.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.1 vs 6.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.95
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$4.67
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$4.40
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$5.30
(+1%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.1 to 6.1
Stabilization Target:
$6.34
(+20.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VALN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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