VALN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VALN - Valneva SE American Depositary Shares
$6.96
0.14 (2.05%)
▲
5d:
-2.38%
30d:
+45.61%
90d:
+18.57%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: VALN is 10.7% above its trading range ($6.29). Market expects 0.4% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: VALN is 10.7% above its trading range ($6.29). Market expects 0.4% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.67
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VALN is currently trading at $6.96, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.73 to $6.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.8) is in line with its historical norms (5.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.20, while resistance sits at $7.31.
Market Sentiment: VALN scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.25 (+76.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.20, while resistance sits at $7.31.
Market Sentiment: VALN scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.25 (+76.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$4.73 -
$6.29
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
20.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.7% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 76.0% below Wall St target ($12.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.73 -
$6.29
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.20
Resistance Level
$7.31
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.85
Wall Street Target
$12.25
(+76.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-27.7%
Profit Margin
-110.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 5.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.99
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$7.02
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$7.04
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.99
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 10:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VALN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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