Valmont Industries (VMI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VMI - Valmont Industries, Inc.
$448.48
-2.20 (-0.49%)
▼
5d:
-3.62%
30d:
-4.17%
90d:
-8.21%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VMI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.6% annual earnings decline despite 28% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VMI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.6% annual earnings decline despite 28% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$755.48
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$469.09
4.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VMI is currently trading at $448.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $457.31 to $476.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.3) compared to its historical average (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 27.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $438.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VMI scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $610.75 (+36.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $438.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VMI scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $610.75 (+36.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$457.31 -
$476.27
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.2% below Wall St target ($610.75)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 74/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$457.31 -
$476.27
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$438.50
Resistance Level
$480.02
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.27
Wall Street Target
$610.75
(+36.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.5%
Profit Margin
11.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.3 vs 19.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$432.33
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$416.77
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$401.77
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→19)
$449.03
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.2%)
$748.49
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 13.2%)
$650.82
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 13.2%)
$553.20
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $25.62
Bull Case
$502.54
(+12%)
Analyst growth 1.4%, PE expands to 19.4
Base Case
$456.86
(+2%)
Market implied 1.4%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$306.46
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.3 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$501.24
(+11.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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