WMS
ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC.
PLASTICS FOAM PRODUCTS
ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS (WMS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$123.51
-5.79 (-4.48%)
▼
5d:
+0.72%
30d:
-1.34%
90d:
-18.16%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
0d
Protect WMS Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (62%)
Quality Score
36/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$125.14 – $134.46
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
18.5x
CHEAP
vs 21.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$171.36
+38.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$119.53 / $144.34
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WMS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$199.70
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$124.00
0.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMS is currently trading at $123.51, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $125.14 to $134.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.5) compared to its historical average (21.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $119.53, while resistance sits at $144.34. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: WMS scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.36 (+38.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $119.53, while resistance sits at $144.34. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: WMS scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.36 (+38.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$125.14 -
$134.46
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$125.14 -
$134.46
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.44
(5.2%)
Support Level
$119.53
Resistance Level
$144.34
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding WMS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 38.7% below Wall St target ($171.36)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.46
Wall Street Target
$171.36
(+38.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.7%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.5 vs 21.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$117.21
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$111.23
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$105.56
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→22)
$123.51
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.4%)
$173.74
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.5, Growth: 9.4%)
$161.51
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.7, Growth: 9.4%)
$137.28
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.64
Bull Case
$168.72
(+37%)
Analyst growth 18.6%, PE expands to 25.2
Base Case
$153.38
(+24%)
Market implied 18.6%, PE stable at 22.9
Bear Case
$87.92
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.5 to 21.6
Stabilization Target:
$144.51
(+17.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.0%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (WMS)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
2
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits users express optimism about $WMS's potential rebound.
Key Retail Themes:
rebound potential
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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