ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS (WMS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMS - ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC.
$130.40
-0.52 (-0.40%)
▼
5d:
+1.72%
30d:
+1.21%
90d:
-8.93%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WMS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WMS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$200.62
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$124.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMS is currently trading at $130.40, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $126.03 to $130.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.5) compared to its historical average (21.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMS is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $131.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $181.73 (+39.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMS is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $131.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $181.73 (+39.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$126.03 -
$130.09
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
41th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding WMS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 41th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.4% below Wall St target ($181.73)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$126.03 -
$130.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.96
(6.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$122.84
Resistance Level
$131.57
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.49
Wall Street Target
$181.73
(+39.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.8%
Profit Margin
14.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 21.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$125.84
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$121.43
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$117.18
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→22)
$130.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.4%)
$173.74
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: 9.4%)
$170.52
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.6, Growth: 9.4%)
$144.94
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.87
Bull Case
$162.98
(+25%)
Analyst growth 14.0%, PE expands to 24.4
Base Case
$148.17
(+13%)
Market implied 14.0%, PE stable at 22.2
Bear Case
$88.40
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.5 to 21.7
Stabilization Target:
$145.18
(+11.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced WMS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's WMS price and gamma walls.
