Watsco (WSO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WSO - Watsco, Inc.
$314.22
3.32 (1.07%)
â˛
5d:
-0.37%
30d:
+1.55%
90d:
-18.24%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: WSO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: WSO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$449.78
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$279.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WSO is currently trading at $314.22, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $308.64 to $319.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.8) compared to its historical average (27.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WSO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $319.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $379.00 (+20.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WSO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $319.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $379.00 (+20.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$308.64 -
$319.73
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.6% below Wall St target ($379.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$308.64 -
$319.73
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$303.38
Resistance Level
$319.97
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.75
Wall Street Target
$379.00
(+20.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.7%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.8 vs 27.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$300.08
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$286.58
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$273.68
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24â27)
$314.64
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.7, Growth: 8.7%)
$403.25
(+28%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.7%)
$342.52
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 8.7%)
$291.14
(-7%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.72
Bull Case
$386.12
(+23%)
Analyst growth 12.9%, PE expands to 29.2
Base Case
$351.02
(+12%)
Market implied 12.9%, PE stable at 26.5
Bear Case
$211.41
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.7 to 27.3
Stabilization Target:
$361.24
(+15.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 14, 2026 3:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WSO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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