Watsco (WSO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WSO - Watsco, Inc.
$322.98
-4.06 (-1.24%)
▼
5d:
+9.15%
30d:
+0.87%
90d:
-11.36%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WSO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WSO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$455.09
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$282.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WSO is currently trading at $322.98, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $289.58 to $316.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.4) is in line with its historical norms (26.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WSO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $330.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WSO scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WSO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $330.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WSO scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$289.58 -
$316.83
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($349.90)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$289.58 -
$316.83
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$278.51
Resistance Level
$330.65
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.35
Wall Street Target
$349.90
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.7%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.4 vs 26.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$313.29
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$303.89
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$294.78
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→27)
$323.24
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.3, Growth: 9.1%)
$419.57
(+30%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.1%)
$342.22
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 9.1%)
$290.88
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.51
Bull Case
$381.45
(+18%)
Analyst growth 6.0%, PE expands to 28.8
Base Case
$346.77
(+7%)
Market implied 6.0%, PE stable at 26.1
Bear Case
$222.39
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.3 to 26.7
Stabilization Target:
$354.17
(+9.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 25, 2026 4:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WSO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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