YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$37.36
+0.08 (+0.21%)
▲
5d:
-10.21%
30d:
-27.86%
90d:
-24.45%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
52/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$44.01 – $52.35
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
6.2x
CHEAP
vs 8.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$61.39
+64.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$36.51 / $50.00
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: YPF is down 10.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.63
Based on -12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YPF is currently trading at $37.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.01 to $52.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.2) compared to its historical average (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2550.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YPF is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $36.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.39 (+64.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YPF is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $36.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.39 (+64.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$44.01 -
$52.35
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$44.01 -
$52.35
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$36.51
Resistance Level
$50.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 64.3% below Wall St target ($61.39)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.20
Wall Street Target
$61.39
(+64.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2550.7%
Profit Margin
9.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 8.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.62
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$30.26
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$27.24
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→9)
$39.09
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -29.8%)
$87.23
(+134%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: -29.8%)
$27.24
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: -29.8%)
$23.15
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.43
Bull Case
$45.50
(+22%)
Analyst growth 11.0%, PE expands to 7.6
Base Case
$41.37
(+11%)
Market implied 11.0%, PE stable at 6.9
Bear Case
$25.35
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$53.62
(+43.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+43.5%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (YPF)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on YPF are bearish (sentiment score +0.00) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YPF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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