YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YPF - YPF Sociedad Anonima
$49.17
-1.20 (-2.38%)
▼
5d:
-3.8%
30d:
-8.83%
90d:
-4.34%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 06, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: YPF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: YPF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.65
Based on -9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YPF is currently trading at $49.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.83 to $54.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YPF is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $47.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.97 (+23.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YPF is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $47.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.97 (+23.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$49.83 -
$54.10
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.0% below Wall St target ($61.97)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.83 -
$54.10
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.96
Resistance Level
$53.02
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.18
Wall Street Target
$61.97
(+23.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
72.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2550.7%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.82
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$51.28
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$51.74
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$50.17
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -23.2%)
$79.44
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: -23.2%)
$36.72
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: -23.2%)
$31.21
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$111.72
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.4
Base Case
$101.56
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.7
Bear Case
$34.53
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YPF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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