YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YPF - YPF Sociedad Anonima
$55.55
-0.51 (-0.91%)
▼
5d:
+5.99%
30d:
+13.6%
90d:
-1.42%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: YPF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: YPF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.18
Based on -6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YPF is currently trading at $55.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.34 to $53.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.1) compared to its historical average (8.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YPF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $57.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: YPF scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YPF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $57.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: YPF scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$49.34 -
$53.19
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.53)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 4.6% growth expectation is conservative given 2551% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.34 -
$53.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.15
Resistance Level
$57.10
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.13
Wall Street Target
$60.53
(+9.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
72.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2550.7%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 8.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.11
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$60.78
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$63.57
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$55.24
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -17.8%)
$80.65
(+45%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: -17.8%)
$40.50
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: -17.8%)
$34.42
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.94
Bull Case
$123.33
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.8
Base Case
$112.12
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.9
Bear Case
$38.12
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:15 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is YPF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mauricio Alejandro Martin
SELL
3430 shares
2026-03-25
Marcelo Gustavo Aldeco
SELL
12719 shares
2026-03-19
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