ZTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZTO - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$20.01
0.13 (0.68%)
â˛
5d:
-0.07%
30d:
+2.01%
90d:
-16.58%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 17, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ZTO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ZTO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.47
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.40
6.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZTO is currently trading at $20.00, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.54 to $20.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.3) compared to its historical average (1.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 58.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.59 (+38.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.59 (+38.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$19.54 -
$20.45
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.8% below Wall St target ($27.59)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.54 -
$20.45
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.53
Resistance Level
$20.77
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.32
Wall Street Target
$27.59
(+38.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.1%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.3 vs 1.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.64
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$17.48
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$16.40
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1â2)
$19.84
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.0%)
$407.88
(+1953%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.3, Growth: 11.0%)
$27.16
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.1, Growth: 11.0%)
$23.09
(+16%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.83
Bull Case
$44.48
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$40.44
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$13.75
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.3 to 1.6
Stabilization Target:
$24.04
(+21.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 1:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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