ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
Trucking & Courier Services (No Air)
ZTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$20.46
-0.04 (-0.17%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.56%
30d:
-1.04%
90d:
-10.75%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (65%)
Quality Score
49/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$19.86 â $20.51
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
1.4x
CHEAP
vs 1.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$27.55
+34.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$19.72 / $21.38
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ZTO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.46
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.39
4.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZTO is currently trading at $20.45, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.86 to $20.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.4) compared to its historical average (1.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 58.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $19.72, while resistance sits at $21.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.55 (+34.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $19.72, while resistance sits at $21.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.55 (+34.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$19.86 -
$20.51
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$19.86 -
$20.51
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$19.72
Resistance Level
$21.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.4% below Wall St target ($27.55)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.36
Wall Street Target
$27.55
(+34.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.1%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.4 vs 1.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.49
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$18.53
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$17.62
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1â2)
$20.67
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.0%)
$407.66
(+1890%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.4, Growth: 11.0%)
$28.00
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 11.0%)
$23.80
(+16%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.83
Bull Case
$45.45
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$41.32
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$14.05
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.4 to 1.6
Stabilization Target:
$24.03
(+17.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.3%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ZTO)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Mar 19, 2024
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on ZTO are bearish (sentiment score -0.48) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 1:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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