ZTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZTO - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$21.37
-0.01 (-0.05%)
▼
5d:
-6.68%
30d:
-11.11%
90d:
-6.4%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ZTO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ZTO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.98
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.58
9.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZTO is currently trading at $21.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.72 to $24.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.4) compared to its historical average (1.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 58.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ZTO scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.24 (+36.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ZTO scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.24 (+36.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$22.72 -
$24.43
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (26/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.8% below Wall St target ($29.24)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.72 -
$24.43
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.94
Resistance Level
$23.93
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.39
Wall Street Target
$29.24
(+36.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.1%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.4 vs 1.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.12
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$18.93
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$17.81
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$21.82
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 11.5%)
$428.89
(+1906%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.4, Growth: 11.5%)
$29.66
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 11.5%)
$25.21
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.58
Bull Case
$47.32
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$43.02
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$14.63
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.4 to 1.7
Stabilization Target:
$26.19
(+22.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 12:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:59 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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