ZTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZTO - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$19.39
-0.03 (-0.15%)
▼
5d:
-0.41%
30d:
-7.93%
90d:
-15.99%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 18, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ZTO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ZTO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.51
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.43
9.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZTO is currently trading at $19.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.79 to $21.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.3) compared to its historical average (1.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 58.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.81 (+43.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.81 (+43.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$19.79 -
$21.21
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.4% below Wall St target ($27.81)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.79 -
$21.21
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.95
Resistance Level
$21.04
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.29
Wall Street Target
$27.81
(+43.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.1%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.3 vs 1.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.97
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$16.66
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$15.45
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$19.13
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 11.1%)
$420.20
(+2067%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.3, Growth: 11.1%)
$26.61
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.1, Growth: 11.1%)
$22.62
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.91
Bull Case
$42.72
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$38.84
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$13.21
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.3 to 1.6
Stabilization Target:
$24.01
(+23.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 8:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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