ZTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZTO - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$21.88
-0.36 (-1.60%)
▼
5d:
-4.39%
30d:
-4.18%
90d:
-12.25%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ZTO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ZTO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.71
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.41
6.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZTO is currently trading at $21.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.11 to $23.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.4) compared to its historical average (1.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $21.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.07 (+30.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $21.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.07 (+30.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$22.11 -
$23.08
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.8% below Wall St target ($29.07)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.11 -
$23.08
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.87
Resistance Level
$22.81
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.45
Wall Street Target
$29.07
(+30.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Profit Margin
17.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.5 vs 1.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.01
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$19.85
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$18.76
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$22.04
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.3%)
$461.39
(+1976%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.4, Growth: 11.3%)
$30.65
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 11.3%)
$26.05
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.69
Bull Case
$48.84
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$44.40
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$15.10
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.4 to 1.7
Stabilization Target:
$26.12
(+17.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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