ACA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACA - Arcosa, Inc. Common Stock
$145.20
-0.03 (-0.02%)
▼
5d:
+0.14%
30d:
+0.37%
90d:
+14.81%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ACA trades at premium valuation expecting 6.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: ACA trades at premium valuation expecting 6.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$194.98
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$121.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACA is currently trading at $145.20, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $144.71 to $145.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 28.6) compared to its historical average (23.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $144.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $144.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$144.71 -
$145.24
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($145.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.1% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$144.71 -
$145.24
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$144.38
Resistance Level
$145.54
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.56
Wall Street Target
$145.50
(+0.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
57.8%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.1% premium
PE vs Historical
28.6 vs 23.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$154.06
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$163.45
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$173.43
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$145.14
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.6, Growth: 16.0%)
$226.55
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 16.0%)
$164.45
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 16.0%)
$139.78
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.48
Bull Case
$181.31
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.5%, PE expands to 35.7
Base Case
$164.83
(+14%)
Market implied 13.5%, PE stable at 32.4
Bear Case
$98.76
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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