ACA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACA - Arcosa, Inc. Common Stock
$144.92
0.02 (0.01%)
▲
5d:
+12.83%
30d:
+21.63%
90d:
+39.0%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ACA is 8.5% above its trading range ($133.53). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ACA is 8.5% above its trading range ($133.53). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$187.64
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACA is currently trading at $144.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.15 to $133.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 28.5) compared to its historical average (23.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $146.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $146.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$120.15 -
$133.53
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($146.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.4% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$120.15 -
$133.53
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$122.41
Resistance Level
$146.92
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.50
Wall Street Target
$146.00
(+0.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
57.8%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.4% premium
PE vs Historical
28.5 vs 23.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$155.64
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$167.16
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$179.53
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$144.87
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.5, Growth: 16.0%)
$226.11
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.0%)
$172.78
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 16.0%)
$146.86
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.46
Bull Case
$181.71
(+25%)
Analyst growth 14.0%, PE expands to 35.7
Base Case
$165.19
(+14%)
Market implied 14.0%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$98.53
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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ACA is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.
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