ACAD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACAD - Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc.
$28.02
0.16 (0.57%)
â˛
5d:
-3.74%
30d:
-1.51%
90d:
+29.96%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ACAD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ACAD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.33
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACAD is currently trading at $28.02, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.01 to $29.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 31.5) compared to its historical average (28.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACAD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACAD scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.00 (+21.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACAD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACAD scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.00 (+21.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$27.01 -
$29.88
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ACAD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.3% below Wall St target ($34.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.01 -
$29.88
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.62
Resistance Level
$30.76
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.48
Wall Street Target
$34.00
(+21.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Profit Margin
33.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
31.5 vs 28.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.08
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$30.19
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$31.34
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31â28)
PE COMPRESSION
$27.97
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.5, Growth: 48.5%)
$91.77
(+228%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 48.5%)
$58.97
(+111%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 48.5%)
$50.12
(+79%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.15
Bull Case
$15.32
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$13.93
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$18.94
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 05, 2026 12:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACAD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James Kihara
SELL
1030 shares
2026-04-07
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SELL
2709 shares
2026-04-07
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