ADBE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADBE - Adobe Inc.
$197.84
2.94 (1.51%)
▲
5d:
-4.13%
30d:
-18.95%
90d:
-20.11%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 10, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADBE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -12.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADBE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -12.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$435.04
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$270.12
26.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADBE is currently trading at $197.84, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $211.69 to $259.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.1) compared to its historical average (10.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $190.12, while resistance sits at $245.25.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $282.27 (+44.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $190.12, while resistance sits at $245.25.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $282.27 (+44.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$211.69 -
$259.09
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.8% below Wall St target ($282.27)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$211.69 -
$259.09
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$190.12
Resistance Level
$245.25
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.08
Wall Street Target
$282.27
(+44.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 10.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$175.41
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$157.87
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$142.08
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→11)
$212.81
(+9%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.7%)
$859.43
(+341%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 12.7%)
$279.26
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 12.7%)
$237.37
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.49
Bull Case
$338.02
(+73%)
Analyst growth 57.5%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$307.29
(+58%)
Market implied 57.5%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$132.71
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 10.6
Stabilization Target:
$291.91
(+49.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+49.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADBE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel Durn
SELL
1336 shares
2026-04-20
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
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Advanced ADBE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADBE price and gamma walls.
