Is ADBE stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ADBE is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADBE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of ADBE stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ADBE to be between $223.03 and $259.98. The current price is $264.02.

What is the analyst price target for ADBE?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ADBE is $269.61. This implies a potential upside of 2.1% from current levels.

ADBE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ADBE - Adobe Inc.

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$264.02

-6.47 (-2.39%) ▼

5d: -0.45%

30d: +12.2%

90d: +11.4%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Sep 10, 2026 23d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $265.21 · last confirmed Aug 14, 2026

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADBE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 12.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$412.79

Based on 8.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$256.31

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ADBE is currently trading at $264.02, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $223.03 to $259.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $245.46, while resistance sits at $273.40.

Market Sentiment: ADBE scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $223.03 - $259.98

Company Quality Score 30/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 23.8%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($269.61)
WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $223.03 - $259.98

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $245.46

Resistance Level $273.40

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 9.61

Wall Street Target $269.61 (+2.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 12.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 7.9%

Profit Margin 28.7%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.8% cheaper

PE vs Historical 9.6 vs 10.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $259.27 (-2%)

2-Year Target $254.60 (-4%)

3-Year Target $250.02 (-5%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→10) $262.89 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.6%) $793.89 (+201%)

Base: (SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 12.6%) $376.94 (+43%)

Bear: (PE: 8.2, Growth: 12.6%) $320.40 (+21%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 15.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.16

Bull Case $455.91 (+73%)

Analyst growth 60.2%, PE expands to 16.6

Base Case $414.47 (+57%)

Market implied 60.2%, PE stable at 15.1

Bear Case $175.95 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 10.1

Stabilization Target: $277.62 (+5.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +5.2%

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Last updated: August 17, 2026 2:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:27 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Daniel Durn SELL 1336 shares 2026-04-20

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

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Advanced ADBE Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADBE price and gamma walls.

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