Is ADBE stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ADBE is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: ADBE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of ADBE stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ADBE to be between $201.23 and $227.71. The current price is $225.11.

What is the analyst price target for ADBE?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ADBE is $269.61. This implies a potential upside of 19.8% from current levels.

ADBE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ADBE - Adobe Inc.

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$225.11

12.94 (6.10%) ▲

5d: -5.12%

30d: +14.52%

90d: -5.8%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Jul 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Sep 10, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

None View Scanner →

Strength: 7.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADBE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 12.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$416.88

Based on 8.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$258.85

13.0% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ADBE is currently trading at $225.11, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $201.23 to $227.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $210.88, while resistance sits at $240.15. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.1% recently.

Market Sentiment: ADBE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $269.61 (+19.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $201.23 - $227.71

Company Quality Score 44/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 78.6%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.1%)
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($269.61)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.1% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $201.23 - $227.71

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $210.88

Resistance Level $240.15

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Jul 24, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 8.19

Wall Street Target $269.61 (+19.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 12.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 7.9%

Profit Margin 28.7%

Valuation Discount vs History -7.1% cheaper

PE vs Historical 8.2 vs 10.2 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -7.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $209.13 (-7%)

2-Year Target $194.28 (-14%)

3-Year Target $180.49 (-20%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 8→10) $224.79 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.8, Growth: 12.6%) $816.65 (+263%)

Base: (SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 12.6%) $321.39 (+43%)

Bear: (PE: 7.0, Growth: 12.6%) $273.18 (+21%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 12.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.99

Bull Case $377.58 (+68%)

Analyst growth 61.8%, PE expands to 13.7

Base Case $343.25 (+53%)

Market implied 61.8%, PE stable at 12.5

Bear Case $144.28 (-36%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 10.2

Stabilization Target: $280.37 (+24.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +24.5%

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Last updated: July 26, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:00 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Daniel Durn SELL 1336 shares 2026-04-20

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

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