Adobe (ADBE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$243.08
+4.54 (+1.90%)
▲
5d:
+1.58%
30d:
-3.41%
90d:
-4.31%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (79%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$237.30 – $254.59
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.9x
CHEAP
vs 9.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$266.91
+9.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$231.82 / $256.80
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADBE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
ADBE is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today
SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; ADBE has been on it 2 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-11-13.
See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 12, 2026 at $237.89 · last confirmed Nov 13, 2026
Strength: 8.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$397.99
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$247.12
1.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADBE is currently trading at $243.08, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $237.30 to $254.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.9) compared to its historical average (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $231.82, while resistance sits at $256.80.
Market Sentiment: ADBE scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $231.82, while resistance sits at $256.80.
Market Sentiment: ADBE scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$237.30 -
$254.59
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$237.30 -
$254.59
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$231.82
Resistance Level
$256.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (67/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($266.91)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 67/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.87
Wall Street Target
$266.91
(+9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Profit Margin
28.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 9.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$234.57
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$226.36
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$218.44
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$243.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.0%)
$763.97
(+214%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 12.0%)
$341.18
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 12.0%)
$290.00
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.91
Bull Case
$401.53
(+65%)
Analyst growth 53.0%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$365.03
(+50%)
Market implied 53.0%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$162.21
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 9.9
Stabilization Target:
$271.33
(+11.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ADBE)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 12, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Adobe (ADBE) entered into a multi-year AI partnership with Walt Disney (DIS), raising questions for investors about Disney's recent share price rebound. Disney's 10% gain in a month comes after mixed returns and a 21.6% decline over five years.
Key Retail Themes:
Disney's AI partnership with Adobe
Disney's share price rebound and long-term performance
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 5:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADBE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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