Is ADBE stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ADBE is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADBE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of ADBE stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ADBE to be between $235.00 and $254.46. The current price is $270.55.

What is the analyst price target for ADBE?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ADBE is $272.31. This implies a potential upside of 6.8% from current levels.

Adobe (ADBE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ADBE - Adobe Inc.

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$270.55

15.49 (6.07%) ▲

5d: +7.5%

30d: +12.41%

90d: +20.19%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Dec 09, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 12, 2026 at $237.54 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026

Strength: 7.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADBE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 12.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$403.09

Based on 8.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$250.29

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ADBE is currently trading at $270.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $235.00 to $254.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $272.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.1% recently.

Market Sentiment: ADBE scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $235.00 - $254.46

Company Quality Score 38/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 23.8%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.3% above its trading range)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.1%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($272.31)
WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $235.00 - $254.46

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $232.85

Resistance Level $272.10

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 9.27

Wall Street Target $272.31 (+6.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 12.9%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 10.5%

Profit Margin 28.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -2.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 9.3 vs 9.9 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -2.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $249.19 (-2%)

2-Year Target $243.46 (-5%)

3-Year Target $237.86 (-7%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 9→10) $253.96 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.4%) $775.48 (+204%)

Base: (SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 12.4%) $362.06 (+42%)

Bear: (PE: 7.9, Growth: 12.4%) $307.75 (+21%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 14.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.91

Bull Case $433.74 (+70%)

Analyst growth 53.6%, PE expands to 15.8

Base Case $394.31 (+55%)

Market implied 53.6%, PE stable at 14.3

Bear Case $174.58 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 9.9

Stabilization Target: $272.33 (+6.8%)

PE Expansion Potential: +6.8%

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:55 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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