Adobe (ADBE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADBE - Adobe Inc.
$252.23
3.40 (1.37%)
▲
5d:
-11.73%
30d:
-2.52%
90d:
+15.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 10, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $267.80 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ADBE is down 11.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ADBE is down 11.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$412.96
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$256.42
1.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADBE is currently trading at $252.23, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $256.25 to $280.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $241.51, while resistance sits at $294.53.
Market Sentiment: ADBE scores 19/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $277.75 (+10.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $241.51, while resistance sits at $294.53.
Market Sentiment: ADBE scores 19/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $277.75 (+10.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$256.25 -
$280.93
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADBE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (19/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($277.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$256.25 -
$280.93
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$241.51
Resistance Level
$294.53
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.17
Wall Street Target
$277.75
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$244.16
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$236.35
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$228.78
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$251.91
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.6%)
$792.72
(+214%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 12.6%)
$360.50
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 12.6%)
$306.42
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.07
Bull Case
$440.93
(+75%)
Analyst growth 61.1%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$400.84
(+59%)
Market implied 61.1%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$169.20
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$277.73
(+10.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 8:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADBE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel Durn
SELL
1336 shares
2026-04-20
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
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Advanced ADBE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADBE price and gamma walls.
