ADBE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADBE - Adobe Inc.
$227.16
-7.58 (-3.23%)
▼
5d:
+2.89%
30d:
+16.4%
90d:
-8.64%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 10, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADBE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADBE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$422.57
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$262.38
13.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADBE is currently trading at $227.16, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $199.92 to $227.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $213.09, while resistance sits at $240.15. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADBE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $273.28 (+20.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $213.09, while resistance sits at $240.15. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADBE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $273.28 (+20.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$199.92 -
$227.27
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.3% below Wall St target ($273.28)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$199.92 -
$227.27
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$213.09
Resistance Level
$240.15
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.25
Wall Street Target
$273.28
(+20.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 10.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$211.26
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$196.47
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$182.72
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$228.07
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 12.7%)
$826.12
(+264%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 12.7%)
$325.39
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 12.7%)
$276.58
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.49
Bull Case
$410.77
(+75%)
Analyst growth 57.4%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$373.43
(+59%)
Market implied 57.4%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$161.33
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$283.55
(+24.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 21, 2026 5:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADBE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel Durn
SELL
1336 shares
2026-04-20
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
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Advanced ADBE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADBE price and gamma walls.
