Is ADBE stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ADBE is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADBE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of ADBE stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ADBE to be between $230.84 and $267.52. The current price is $275.30.

What is the analyst price target for ADBE?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ADBE is $270.61. This implies a potential upside of -1.7% from current levels.

ADBE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ADBE - Adobe Inc.

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$275.30

3.08 (1.13%) ▲

5d: +4.27%

30d: +29.75%

90d: +12.78%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Sep 10, 2026 18d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $265.21 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026

Strength: 9.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADBE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 12.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$412.90

Based on 8.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$256.38

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ADBE is currently trading at $275.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $230.84 to $267.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $277.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $230.84 - $267.52

Company Quality Score 39/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 46.2%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($270.61)
WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $230.84 - $267.52

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $251.20

Resistance Level $277.10

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.01

Wall Street Target $270.61 (-1.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 12.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 7.9%

Profit Margin 28.7%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 10.0 vs 10.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $274.20 (0%)

2-Year Target $273.10 (-1%)

3-Year Target $272.01 (-1%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→10) $274.37 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 12.6%) $788.28 (+186%)

Base: (SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 12.6%) $393.28 (+43%)

Bear: (PE: 8.5, Growth: 12.6%) $334.29 (+21%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 15.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.48

Bull Case $470.98 (+71%)

Analyst growth 57.3%, PE expands to 17.1

Base Case $428.17 (+56%)

Market implied 57.3%, PE stable at 15.6

Bear Case $185.11 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 10.1

Stabilization Target: $277.69 (+0.9%)

PE Expansion Potential: +0.9%

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 3:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Daniel Durn SELL 1336 shares 2026-04-20

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

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Advanced ADBE Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADBE price and gamma walls.

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