ADBE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADBE - Adobe Inc.
$227.22
3.58 (1.60%)
▲
5d:
+4.2%
30d:
-2.64%
90d:
+0.83%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 10, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.3/10
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7 traders called ADBE this week
80% bullish • 2 bearish
80% bullish • 2 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADBE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADBE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$422.57
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$262.38
13.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADBE is currently trading at $227.22, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $197.92 to $243.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.1) compared to its historical average (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $230.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADBE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $272.48 (+21.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $230.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADBE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $272.48 (+21.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$197.92 -
$243.54
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.8% below Wall St target ($272.48)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$197.92 -
$243.54
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$195.29
Resistance Level
$230.74
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.12
Wall Street Target
$272.48
(+21.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 10.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$206.20
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$190.11
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$175.28
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$222.24
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.7%)
$858.85
(+284%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 12.7%)
$320.35
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 12.7%)
$272.29
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.43
Bull Case
$383.85
(+72%)
Analyst growth 57.9%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$348.95
(+56%)
Market implied 57.9%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$150.24
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$283.55
(+26.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 10:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADBE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel Durn
SELL
1336 shares
2026-04-20
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADBE price and gamma walls.
