AGO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGO - Assured Guaranty, LTD
$78.63
0.49 (0.63%)
▲
5d:
+1.63%
30d:
+2.26%
90d:
-3.69%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AGO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AGO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.28
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGO is currently trading at $78.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.43 to $77.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.33 (+18.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.33 (+18.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$74.43 -
$77.61
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($92.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$74.43 -
$77.61
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.08
Resistance Level
$78.98
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.20
Wall Street Target
$92.33
(+18.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.5%
Profit Margin
51.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$76.19
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$74.28
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$72.42
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$78.11
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.5%)
$195.94
(+151%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 5.5%)
$91.75
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 5.5%)
$77.99
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.73
Bull Case
$73.98
(-5%)
Analyst growth -12.2%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$67.25
(-14%)
Market implied -12.2%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$52.11
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$84.28
(+7.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 2:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Francisco L Borges
SELL
123750 shares
2026-03-30
Dominic Frederico
SELL
29998 shares
2026-03-23
Dominic Frederico
SELL
20002 shares
2026-03-20
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