Radian Group (RDN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RDN - Radian Group Inc.
$34.97
0.17 (0.49%)
▲
5d:
-1.82%
30d:
-3.82%
90d:
+0.78%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RDN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RDN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.14
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RDN is currently trading at $34.97, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.90 to $36.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $34.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.80 (+25.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $34.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.80 (+25.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$35.90 -
$36.88
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.9% below Wall St target ($43.80)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.90 -
$36.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.27
Resistance Level
$37.12
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.62
Wall Street Target
$43.80
(+25.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
93.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.2%
Profit Margin
32.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.28
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$33.76
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$33.26
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$34.64
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.8%)
$129.40
(+272%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 6.8%)
$42.43
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 6.8%)
$36.07
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.04
Bull Case
$50.45
(+45%)
Analyst growth 30.0%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$45.86
(+32%)
Market implied 30.0%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$23.98
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$36.25
(+4.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 18, 2026 11:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
15000 shares
2026-04-23
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
13009 shares
2026-04-17
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
1991 shares
2026-04-10
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