Radian Group (RDN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RDN - Radian Group Inc.
$35.39
0.43 (1.23%)
â˛
5d:
+1.99%
30d:
+15.62%
90d:
-9.23%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RDN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RDN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.47
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RDN is currently trading at $35.39, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.70 to $35.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.7) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.48, while resistance sits at $36.71.
Market Sentiment: RDN scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.57 (+24.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.48, while resistance sits at $36.71.
Market Sentiment: RDN scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.57 (+24.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$32.70 -
$35.01
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (13/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.6% below Wall St target ($43.57)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.70 -
$35.01
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.48
Resistance Level
$36.71
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.69
Wall Street Target
$43.57
(+24.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
93.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.2%
Profit Margin
32.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.65
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$34.33
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$34.02
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7â7)
$35.11
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.3%)
$128.31
(+267%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 7.3%)
$43.20
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 7.3%)
$36.72
(+5%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.04
Bull Case
$50.82
(+45%)
Analyst growth 29.4%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$46.20
(+32%)
Market implied 29.4%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$24.28
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$36.08
(+3.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 29, 2026 11:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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NEUTRAL
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