Radian Group (RDN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RDN - Radian Group Inc.
$34.17
0.47 (1.39%)
▲
5d:
+9.45%
30d:
-6.0%
90d:
-9.7%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.66
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.21
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RDN is currently trading at $34.17, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.98 to $36.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.5) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $34.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RDN scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.67 (+30.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $34.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RDN scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.67 (+30.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$32.98 -
$36.16
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.7% below Wall St target ($44.67)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 14% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.98 -
$36.16
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.53
Resistance Level
$34.30
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.45
Wall Street Target
$44.67
(+30.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
93.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.2%
Profit Margin
32.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.5 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.42
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$32.68
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$31.96
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$34.19
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: 7.8%)
$130.69
(+283%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.5, Growth: 7.8%)
$42.80
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: 7.8%)
$36.38
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.05
Bull Case
$48.48
(+42%)
Analyst growth 30.8%, PE expands to 9.2
Base Case
$44.07
(+29%)
Market implied 30.8%, PE stable at 8.3
Bear Case
$22.92
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.5 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$36.55
(+7.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 08, 2026 7:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is RDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
15000 shares
2026-04-23
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
13009 shares
2026-04-17
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