RDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RDN - Radian Group Inc.
$36.41
-0.11 (-0.30%)
▼
5d:
-0.49%
30d:
-6.18%
90d:
+6.62%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RDN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RDN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.14
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RDN is currently trading at $36.41, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.43 to $38.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.9) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RDN scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.80 (+20.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RDN scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.80 (+20.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$36.43 -
$38.80
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.3% below Wall St target ($43.80)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 74/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.43 -
$38.80
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.08
Resistance Level
$37.68
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.93
Wall Street Target
$43.80
(+20.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
93.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.2%
Profit Margin
32.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.37
(0%)
2-Year Target
$36.34
(0%)
3-Year Target
$36.30
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$36.14
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 6.8%)
$128.56
(+253%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 6.8%)
$44.39
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 6.8%)
$37.74
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.05
Bull Case
$52.11
(+43%)
Analyst growth 29.7%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$47.37
(+30%)
Market implied 29.7%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$24.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 29, 2026 6:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
15000 shares
2026-04-23
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
13009 shares
2026-04-17
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
1991 shares
2026-04-10
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