NMIH
NMI Holdings Inc. Common Stock
SURETY INSURANCE
NMI (NMIH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$39.05
+0.32 (+0.83%)
▲
5d:
-11.17%
30d:
-1.29%
90d:
-14.06%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (57%)
Quality Score
41/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$39.22 – $42.75
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.2x
FAIR
vs 7.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$47.50
+21.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$36.47 / $45.65
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NMIH is down 11.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.00
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMIH is currently trading at $39.05, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.22 to $42.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (7.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $36.47, while resistance sits at $45.65.
Market Sentiment: NMIH scores 27/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.50 (+21.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $36.47, while resistance sits at $45.65.
Market Sentiment: NMIH scores 27/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.50 (+21.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.22 -
$42.75
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$39.22 -
$42.75
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$36.47
Resistance Level
$45.65
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (27/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.6% below Wall St target ($47.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.24
Wall Street Target
$47.50
(+21.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Profit Margin
53.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 7.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.74
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$38.43
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$38.12
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$38.98
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 3.5%)
$118.72
(+204%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: 3.5%)
$43.26
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 3.5%)
$36.77
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.09
Bull Case
$45.16
(+16%)
Analyst growth 6.0%, PE expands to 8.4
Base Case
$41.06
(+5%)
Market implied 6.0%, PE stable at 7.6
Bear Case
$26.34
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 7.4
Stabilization Target:
$39.93
(+2.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.2%
Share NMIH Analysis
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NMIH)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Apr 28, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A single bullish message on StockTwits with 730 followers expresses optimism about $NMIH's structure and trend strength.
Key Retail Themes:
Bullish sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMIH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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