NMI (NMIH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMIH - NMI Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$38.83
0.75 (1.97%)
▲
5d:
-5.82%
30d:
-12.88%
90d:
-6.16%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NMIH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NMIH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.27
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMIH is currently trading at $38.83, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.15 to $45.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.0) is in line with its historical norms (7.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.21, while resistance sits at $43.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.86 (+28.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.21, while resistance sits at $43.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.86 (+28.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$41.15 -
$45.23
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.4% below Wall St target ($49.86)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (50/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.15 -
$45.23
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.21
Resistance Level
$43.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.00
Wall Street Target
$49.86
(+28.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.1%
Profit Margin
54.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 7.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.09
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$37.37
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$36.66
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$38.75
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 5.1%)
$131.19
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 5.1%)
$45.02
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 5.1%)
$38.26
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.18
Bull Case
$44.86
(+16%)
Analyst growth 7.1%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$40.78
(+5%)
Market implied 7.1%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$25.89
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 7.4
Stabilization Target:
$41.05
(+5.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 12:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMIH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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