NMI (NMIH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMIH - NMI Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$41.49
0.72 (1.77%)
▲
5d:
+3.47%
30d:
-1.66%
90d:
-2.95%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
Get Alerted When NMIH Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NMIH is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NMIH is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.95
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMIH is currently trading at $41.49, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.29 to $42.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.5) is in line with its historical norms (7.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.14 (+18.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.14 (+18.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$39.29 -
$42.51
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($49.14)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.29 -
$42.51
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.69
Resistance Level
$42.59
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.53
Wall Street Target
$49.14
(+18.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.1%
Profit Margin
54.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 7.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.70
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$41.91
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$42.12
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.38
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.3%)
$123.96
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 4.3%)
$47.01
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 4.3%)
$39.96
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.08
Bull Case
$48.63
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.4%, PE expands to 8.8
Base Case
$44.21
(+7%)
Market implied 8.4%, PE stable at 8.0
Bear Case
$27.72
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is NMIH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Insurance - Specialty Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance - Specialty by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
FAF
First American Corporati… |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$85 | 50 HOLD |
|
RYAN
Ryan Specialty Group Hol… |
BUY
13 analysts |
$51 | 41 HOLD |
|
RDN
Radian Group Inc |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$45 | 51 HOLD |
|
AXS
AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd |
BUY
12 analysts |
$120 | 33 SELL |
|
FNF
Fidelity National Financ… |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$55 | 51 HOLD |
