NMI (NMIH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMIH - NMI Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$43.89
-0.30 (-0.68%)
▼
5d:
-3.3%
30d:
-2.21%
90d:
+19.46%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NMIH is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NMIH is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.42
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMIH is currently trading at $43.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.32 to $45.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (7.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NMIH scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.17 (+12.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NMIH scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.17 (+12.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$44.32 -
$45.39
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($49.17)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.32 -
$45.39
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.72
Resistance Level
$45.61
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.01
Wall Street Target
$49.17
(+12.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.1%
Profit Margin
54.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 7.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.03
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$46.20
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$47.40
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.77
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 4.1%)
$124.75
(+184%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 4.1%)
$49.57
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 4.1%)
$42.13
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.05
Bull Case
$52.71
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.4%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$47.92
(+9%)
Market implied 8.4%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$30.05
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMIH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18953 shares
2026-03-24
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18996 shares
2026-03-19
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