Assured Guaranty (AGO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGO - Assured Guaranty, LTD
$70.27
0.95 (1.37%)
▲
5d:
-0.06%
30d:
+3.77%
90d:
-15.05%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 29, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$149.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$92.78
24.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGO is currently trading at $70.27, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.78 to $70.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGO scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.00 (+31.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGO scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.00 (+31.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$68.78 -
$70.35
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.3% below Wall St target ($91.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 64/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$68.78 -
$70.35
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.94
Resistance Level
$70.97
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.85
Wall Street Target
$91.00
(+31.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-57.7%
Profit Margin
43.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 10.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.10
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$64.95
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$62.88
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$69.60
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 33.1%)
$141.20
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 33.1%)
$70.01
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 33.1%)
$59.51
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.51
Bull Case
$72.01
(+4%)
Analyst growth -6.3%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$65.47
(-6%)
Market implied -6.3%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$47.49
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$76.73
(+10.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 29, 2026 12:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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