Assured Guaranty (AGO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGO - Assured Guaranty, LTD
$70.72
1.58 (2.29%)
▲
5d:
+3.59%
30d:
-2.06%
90d:
-13.86%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AGO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AGO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$149.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$92.78
23.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGO is currently trading at $70.72, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.84 to $73.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $71.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGO scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.00 (+28.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $71.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGO scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.00 (+28.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$68.84 -
$73.58
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.7% below Wall St target ($91.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 12% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$68.84 -
$73.58
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.24
Resistance Level
$71.20
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.05
Wall Street Target
$91.00
(+28.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-57.7%
Profit Margin
43.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 10.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.74
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$66.82
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$64.94
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$70.47
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: 33.1%)
$140.06
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 33.1%)
$71.42
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 33.1%)
$60.71
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.51
Bull Case
$71.29
(+1%)
Analyst growth -6.3%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$64.81
(-8%)
Market implied -6.3%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$47.02
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$76.73
(+8.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 08, 2026 9:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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