AGO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGO - Assured Guaranty, LTD
$84.96
0.79 (0.94%)
▲
5d:
+3.48%
30d:
+9.81%
90d:
+2.36%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2.75
Based on -39.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGO is currently trading at $84.96, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.05 to $83.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $86.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $86.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$77.05 -
$83.23
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($92.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.3% growth with -6.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$77.05 -
$83.23
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$80.91
Resistance Level
$86.36
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.80
Wall Street Target
$92.33
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.5%
Profit Margin
51.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.91
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$88.91
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$90.96
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$84.82
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: -82.8%)
$147.59
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: -82.8%)
$82.87
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: -82.8%)
$70.44
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.73
Bull Case
$76.39
(-10%)
Analyst growth -17.5%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$69.44
(-18%)
Market implied -17.5%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$57.24
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 19, 2026 12:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Francisco L Borges
SELL
123750 shares
2026-03-30
Dominic Frederico
SELL
29998 shares
2026-03-23
Dominic Frederico
SELL
20002 shares
2026-03-20
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