AGO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGO - Assured Guaranty, LTD
$75.43
-7.14 (-8.65%)
▼
5d:
-8.81%
30d:
-8.57%
90d:
-8.49%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AGO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AGO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$84.73
Based on 1.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGO is currently trading at $75.43, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.49 to $85.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $75.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: AGO scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.67 (+21.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $75.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: AGO scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.67 (+21.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$81.49 -
$85.31
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (22/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.5% below Wall St target ($91.67)
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$81.49 -
$85.31
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.01
Resistance Level
$86.94
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.53
Wall Street Target
$91.67
(+21.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.5%
Profit Margin
51.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.15
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$72.89
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$71.65
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$75.52
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -1.4%)
$138.98
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: -1.4%)
$72.35
(-4%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: -1.4%)
$61.50
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.73
Bull Case
$74.52
(-1%)
Analyst growth -18.0%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$67.74
(-10%)
Market implied -18.0%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$56.15
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$79.50
(+5.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 09, 2026 5:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:24 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Francisco L Borges
SELL
123750 shares
2026-03-30
Dominic Frederico
SELL
29998 shares
2026-03-23
Dominic Frederico
SELL
20002 shares
2026-03-20
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