Assured Guaranty (AGO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGO - Assured Guaranty, LTD
$70.89
-0.19 (-0.27%)
▼
5d:
-2.8%
30d:
-5.77%
90d:
-7.36%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AGO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AGO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$150.80
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.63
24.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGO is currently trading at $70.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.65 to $76.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGO scores 7/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.33 (+25.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGO scores 7/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.33 (+25.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$72.65 -
$76.03
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (7/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.7% below Wall St target ($89.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$72.65 -
$76.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.59
Resistance Level
$76.19
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.10
Wall Street Target
$89.33
(+25.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-57.7%
Profit Margin
43.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$69.09
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$67.16
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$65.27
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$71.11
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 33.1%)
$143.62
(+102%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 33.1%)
$71.79
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 33.1%)
$61.02
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.51
Bull Case
$73.51
(+3%)
Analyst growth -6.3%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$66.83
(-6%)
Market implied -6.3%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$48.48
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$77.44
(+8.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 18, 2026 1:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:06 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Francisco L Borges
SELL
123750 shares
2026-03-30
Dominic Frederico
SELL
29998 shares
2026-03-23
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