AGO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGO - Assured Guaranty, LTD
$75.53
-0.31 (-0.41%)
▼
5d:
+1.46%
30d:
-10.24%
90d:
+1.78%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AGO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AGO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$153.45
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$95.28
20.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGO is currently trading at $75.53, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.91 to $83.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGO scores 85/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.33 (+19.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGO scores 85/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.33 (+19.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$74.91 -
$83.68
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (85/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($90.33)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 11% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$74.91 -
$83.68
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.41
Resistance Level
$77.11
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.64
Wall Street Target
$90.33
(+19.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-57.7%
Profit Margin
43.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.55
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$73.58
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$72.62
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$75.77
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 80.4%)
$145.94
(+93%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 80.4%)
$77.37
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 80.4%)
$65.76
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.52
Bull Case
$78.75
(+4%)
Analyst growth -5.6%, PE expands to 11.1
Base Case
$71.59
(-5%)
Market implied -5.6%, PE stable at 10.1
Bear Case
$51.57
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$78.80
(+4.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 29, 2026 8:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Francisco L Borges
SELL
123750 shares
2026-03-30
Dominic Frederico
SELL
29998 shares
2026-03-23
Dominic Frederico
SELL
20002 shares
2026-03-20
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