ALG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALG - Alamo Group, Inc.
$163.93
4.85 (3.05%)
▲
5d:
-0.3%
30d:
-3.71%
90d:
-4.33%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$266.06
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$165.20
0.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALG is currently trading at $163.93, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $160.47 to $167.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.6) is in line with its historical norms (14.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $168.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.80 (+28.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $168.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.80 (+28.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$160.47 -
$167.16
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 28.0% below Wall St target ($209.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$160.47 -
$167.16
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$156.05
Resistance Level
$168.80
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.62
Wall Street Target
$209.80
(+28.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 14.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$160.49
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$157.12
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$153.82
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$163.78
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 13.7%)
$367.17
(+124%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 13.7%)
$241.20
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 13.7%)
$205.02
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.37
Bull Case
$251.67
(+54%)
Analyst growth 43.8%, PE expands to 20.9
Base Case
$228.79
(+40%)
Market implied 43.8%, PE stable at 19.0
Bear Case
$108.17
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 14.5
Stabilization Target:
$174.55
(+6.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward Rizzuti
SELL
600 shares
2026-03-24
Nina C Grooms
SELL
499 shares
2026-03-11
Robert Paul Hureau
BUY
460 shares
2026-03-09
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