What is the fair value of AMD stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AMD to be between $473.52 and $538.13. The current price is $483.01.

What is the analyst price target for AMD?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AMD is $613.33. This implies a potential upside of 27.0% from current levels.

AMD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMD - Advanced Micro Devices

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$483.01

0.08 (0.02%) ▲

5d: -1.28%

30d: -8.72%

90d: +8.42%

BUY

MODERATE Confidence

Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 04, 2026 0d

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

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Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $483.36 · last confirmed Aug 13, 2026

Strength: 6.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$752.65

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$467.34

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AMD is currently trading at $483.01, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $473.52 to $538.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 31.2) is in line with its historical norms (30.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AMD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $455.30, while resistance sits at $530.13.

Market Sentiment: AMD scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $613.33 (+27.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $473.52 - $538.13

Company Quality Score 63/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 91.4%

All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (62/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 27.0% below Wall St target ($613.33)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 62/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $473.52 - $538.13

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $455.30

Resistance Level $530.13

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 13, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 31.24

Wall Street Target $613.33 (+27.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 50.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 159.5%

Profit Margin 15.6%

Valuation Premium vs History +0.3% premium

PE vs Historical 31.2 vs 30.9 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +0.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $484.46 (+0%)

2-Year Target $485.91 (+1%)

3-Year Target $487.37 (+1%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 31→31) PE COMPRESSION $482.02 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 31.2, Growth: 104.5%) $1630.16 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 104.5%) $1055.54 (+119%)

Bear: (PE: 17.2, Growth: 104.5%) $897.21 (+86%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (63x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 63.29 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.63

Bull Case $583.23 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 66.5

Base Case $483.01 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 63.3

Bear Case $369.50 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 57.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 13, 2026 6:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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