AMRC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMRC - Ameresco, Inc.
$23.75
-1.19 (-4.77%)
▼
5d:
-12.2%
30d:
-7.91%
90d:
-10.04%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
19d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMRC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMRC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$65.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.94
42.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMRC is currently trading at $23.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.48 to $28.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.5) compared to its historical average (20.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $23.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMRC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.90 (+80.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $23.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMRC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.90 (+80.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$25.48 -
$28.83
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
37th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMRC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 37th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 80.6% below Wall St target ($42.90)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-12.2%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.48 -
$28.83
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.09
(13.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.64
Resistance Level
$27.91
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.52
Wall Street Target
$42.90
(+80.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.7%
Profit Margin
1.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 20.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.38
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$19.24
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$17.31
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→21)
$24.68
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 50.2%)
$120.24
(+406%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 50.2%)
$80.16
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 50.2%)
$68.13
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.58
Bull Case
$54.87
(+131%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 47.3
Base Case
$49.88
(+110%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.0
Bear Case
$16.96
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 20.7
Stabilization Target:
$33.86
(+42.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 8:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMRC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David J Corrsin
SELL
19 shares
2026-03-12
Louis P Maltezos
SELL
306 shares
2026-03-12
David J Corrsin
SELL
50 shares
2026-03-10
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMRC price and gamma walls.
